world market trends & challenges walt custer consulting group www custerconsulting com october 2004 historical review 2000 bubble demand double ordering inventory building 2001 dot telecom crash sharply lower reductions sept 11 2002 declining shift to asia n american european pcb shutdowns massive china buildup overcapacity price degradation throughout supply chain strong us vs euro gbp 2003 initial modest improvements slowed by war worries sars recovery accelerated in late weak communications orders drop nov dec 1q 04 probably with over downward correction 2q 1209 1092 1028 1090 1199 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 billions constant exchange business communication consumer auto computer gov military industrial instrument electronic outlook corp 3 equipment production type cycle effect growth oem cem pcbs raw material recession expansion increases time process phase capital 6 9 months global impact 1 10 20 33 63 75 combined gdp rigid
