demand for differentiated durable products the case of us computer printer market oleg melnikovy department economics yale university november 13 2000 abstract this paper develops an estimation technique analyzing impact technological change on dynamics consumer in a industry presents dynamic model that explicitly accounts consumers expectations future product quality and outflow from arising endogenously their purchase decisions timing purchases is formalized as optimal stopping problem solution to defines hazard rate adoptions while nested discrete choice determines alternative specific probabilities integrating individual over population distribution generates rich aggregate level sales empirical part takes data estimates support hypothesis forward looking behavior allowing better forecasts improved measures welfare gains introducing new i would like thank patrick bayer john rust christopher timmins especially my advisors steven berry ariel pakes martin pesendorfer
