modelling the world oil market assessment of a quarterly econometric model stéphane déesa pavlos karadelogloua robert k kaufmannb marcelo sáncheza european central bank b cees boston university abstract this paper describes structural that can be used to analyse developments and risks demand depends on domestic economic activity real price supply for non opec producers based competitive behaviours is constrained by geological institutional conditions prices are determined rule includes behaviour policy simulations indicate rather inelastic changes in while decisions about quota capacity utilisation have significant immediate impact keywords forecasting jel codes c51 q41 corresponding author stephane dees kaiserstrasse 29 60311 frankfurt am main germany tel 49 69 13 44 87 84 fax 63 53 e mail ecb int we grateful marc dean conall maccoille ivan odonnat anne marie rieu colleagues from national banks helpful comments previous version
