housing market valuations a potential dampening of consumption complicates ecb policy department director paul mylonas 30210 334 1521 e mail pmylonas nbg gr research coordinator dimitris malliaropulos 1522 nbgmall ethnodata analysts christos ntantamis 3341548 ekaterini panopoulou 2053 apano fragiska voumvaki 1549 fvoumv assistant anastasios vassiliou g183 the sharp house price inflation past few years raises concerns that historically low interest rates are inflating bubble on both sides atlantic in order to assess future path prices we estimated historical relationship between changes and current ratio rents real estate p our analysis suggests g216 euro area seem be currently only slightly above fair value projected decline by 1 per cent year over next three however excluding germany likely drop 4 same period markets us uk significantly overvalued 14
