energy information administration short term outlook january 2003 1 overview world oil markets the market is vulnerable to a number of forces that could cause substantial price volatility over coming months combination sustained loss most venezuela s exports risk increased tensions in middle east and low inventories prices spike at least temporarily above our base case average west texas intermediate wti which stood 27 per barrel on december 2 closed 33 22 3 if venezuelan strike prolonged continue then chance high magnitude upward pressure will depend duration supply willingness ability other suppliers make up for shortfall although risks remain an employs more neutral assumptions we assume turmoil resolved by end this month iraq maintains recent export levels producers step
