frontier economics ltd london modelling the impact of cap reform on agricultural supply chain a report prepared for defra august 2005 i confidential contents executive summary 1 introduction 2 3 data 5 4 what does model do 6 geographic 8 further research 9 11 focus study context work and literature review outline rest 12 framework impacts 13 implications upstream downstream industries turnover employment geographical 16 changes to farm level production 18 approach methodology 21 identifying products interest our affected 22 stakeholder meetings 23 sources assumptions 24 cattle 29