background paper global energy outlook issues and challenges prepared for g20 deputies meeting sydney 2006 international agency paris september 21 1 by the contents summary 3 5 oil supply 9 trends in crude production trade 10 prospects refining industry 13 role of middle east north africa 14 gas 17 investment needs 18 policy implications 23 towards a sustainable future 26 all current talk about imminent end to petroleum age hydrocarbons will continue play leading world s growing hunger at least next quarter century probably well beyond if governments stick with policies as assumed reference scenario iea 2005 would be 25 higher 2015 more than 50 2030 today combined meet half that increase these projections should alert policymakers
