output fluctuations in latin america what explains the recent slowdown 1 santiago herrera guillermo perry neile quintero abstract object of paper is to explain s growth experienced 1998 99 do so we used two complementary methodologies first one aimed at determining how much could be explained by specific external factors namely terms trade international interest rates spreads on debt capital flows and climatological el nino using quarterly gdp data for 8 largest countries region estimate a dynamic panel that allowed calculate between 50 60 was due role these second approach allows some endogenous variables like domestic real exchange affect monthly industrial production country generalized vector autoregressions gvar found during whole sample period 1992 volatility mostly associated with shocks but sub 1999 more than this
