new drug development estimating entry from human clinical trials christopher p adams & van v brantner bureau of economics federal trade commission july 7 2003 abstract this paper analyses a detailed data set on drugs in around the world between 1989 and 2002 provides information probabilities with which successfully complete different phases durations successful completions shows that success rates can vary substantially across observable characteristics including primary indication originating company route administration chemistry it suggests analysis type help us to answer questions such as do aids get market faster biotech have higher getting some general statistics for analyzing these authors would like thank pharmaprojects allowing use we also our colleagues rosa abrantes metz kristy huff fahad kajani roy levy albert morris morkre elizabeth schnierov bill vogt two anonymous reviewers well management denis breen dan hosken pauline ippolito michael vita
