alternatives to conventional crude oil when how quickly and market driven rk kaufmann 1 laura d shiers 2 center for energy & environmental studies boston university ma 02215 department of economics abstract we examine the effect uncertainty concerning remaining supplies its production path on date alternative fuels will be needed quantity this affects firms willingness provide in a timely fashion despite large uncertainties about that remains start replacements is likely fall within twenty year period regardless exact quantities decade yet these are not available because supply create an externality generates asymmetry strategy maximizes welfare society introduction end asian financial crisis started significant turnaround world after more than stable or falling real prices stagnant demand declining
