index funds the 12 step program active investors anonymous treatment of choice for stockaholics mark t hebner president advisors inc www ifa com 949 477 8015 1999 2005 see disclaimers sources and backtested data at 1 risk return are related asset allocation indexes based on three factors explain 95 stock market returns speculation future price movements is not a reliable source because prices unpredictable academic studies show that trying to pick stocks times managers or styles lowers compared an appropriate yardstick such as routinely rebalanced portfolio this markets random efficient moves in manner assets fairly priced all known perceived information only new unknown changes exposure size value 2 optimal obtained when