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Introduction
 
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) is an informally structured group of some of the world's leading gas producers aimed at representing and promoting their mutual interests. Collectively the GECF controls 73% of the world's gas reserves and 41% of production. This collective strength has lead to concerns by gas importers that the GECF has the potential to evolve into a gas version of OPEC.
 

 
Scope
 
The report includes an analysis of the key issues arising form each of the GECF's five annual ministerial meetings
 
The collective strength and market control of the GECF is analysed in the context of its changing membership structure
 
The differing and divergent agendas and motivations of individual GECF members are highlighted
 
Highlights
 
Membership has fluctuated since the GECF's formation in 2001 and currently consists of Algeria, Bolivia, Brunei, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Libya, Malaysia, Nigeria, Norway (as an observer), Oman, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad & Tobago, the UAE and Venezuela. Together these countries account for 73% of global gas reserves and 41% of production.
 

 
Despite being united by a common role as gas producers, the GECF members have very different agendas. So far these differences have presented little problem other than occasionally diverging rhetoric, though potential exists for more significant and divisive differences of opinion if the GECF evolves into a more structured organisation.
 

 
Reasons to Purchase
 
Gain an insight into the key issues arising from each GECF meeting
 
Analyse the potential for the GECF to cartelise the global gas market
 
Obtain an overview of the differing motivations and agendas of the GECF members
 

TABLE OF CONTENTS
 
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
 
The GECF is a loosely defined group of gas producers seeking to represent and benefit their mutual interests 3
 
The GECF is opposed to the movement away from long term purchase contracts resulting from liberalisation 3
 
CHAPTER 2 INTRODUCTION 9
 
This brief examines the role played by the GECF and explores its potential to develop into a gas OPEC 9
 
CHAPTER 3 MARKET CONTEXT 10
 
The GECF members are united by their mutual gas production interests, though consensus of opinion is not guaranteed 10
 
Membership of the GECF has grown since its formation 11
 
At its formation in 2001 the GECF members collectively produced 39% of the world’s gas 11
 
GECF collective reserves at its formation stood at 69% of the world total giving it a significant degree of collective strength 12
 
Like reserves, GECF production levels have increased since formation 13
 
The addition of new members and reserve replacement has increased GECF reserves and its proportion of the world total 14
 
Differing production and reserves positions amongst the members lead to widely differing R/P ratios 15
 
The role of gas in the overall hydrocarbon production mix varies widely between members 16
 
The GECF members are at widely differing stages of economic growth and development as evidenced by their per capital GDP’s 17
 
Fiscal reliance on the energy sector varies significantly between members 18
 
The different agendas and positions of the GECF members manifests itself in the differing attitudes to lobbying 18
 
CHAPTER 4 ANALYSIS OF MEETINGS 20
 
The first GECF meeting took place in May 2001 and focused on strongly denying that it had any intentions to be a gas OPEC 20
 
The first meeting outlined a twelve point plan of objectives for the organisation 21
 
Security of supply and EU liberalisation also featured prominently on the first meeting’s agenda 22
 
In addition to further denials that it was intending to become a gas OPEC, the second meeting raised a number of new issues 23
 
The third meeting was dominated by almost identical issues to the second meeting 27
 
The fourth meeting debated similar issues though was characterised by Venezuela’s announcement that it was keen for the GECF to evolve into a Gas OPEC 29
 
Following the fourth meeting, Egypt continued its campaign for gas price decoupling from oil 32
 
The latest meeting was a relatively muted affair with few new issues debated 33
 
CHAPTER 5 CONCLUSIONS 35
 
There are a number of reasons that make it unlikely that the GECF will emerge as a gas OPEC 35
 
Differing agendas and difficulties in reaching consensus 35
 
The disparate nature of the membership 35
 
The Existence of Long Term Contracts 36
 
Gas is not a global market 36
 
Difficulties in allocating production quotas 37
 
The threat of international anti-cartel laws 37
 
CHAPTER 6 METHODOLOGY 39
 
Statistical Notes 39
 
Abbreviations Used 39
 
Related reports and contact details 39
 

 

 
LIST OF FIGURES
 
Figure 1: GECF Membership 11
 
Figure 2: Founder Member Production Levels 2001 11
 
Figure 3: Founder Member Reserves 2001 12
 
Figure 4: GECF Production 2004 13
 
Figure 5: GECF Reserves 2004 14
 
Figure 6: GECF Gas Production and Reserves (2004) 15
 
Figure 7: GECF Oil and Gas Production (2004) 16
 
Figure 8: Role of Energy in GDP vs Per Capita GDP 17
 
Figure 9: Percentage of GDP Sourced from Energy sector 18