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Introduction
 
This Analysis examines the current position and future outlook for J&J in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.
 

 
Reasons to Purchase
 
Understand how J&J's mature product portfolio and the risk of generic competition will impact sales growth over the forecast period
 
Benchmark J&J's performance against key rivals in the ethical pharmaceutical sector
 
Learn why J&J must continue to focus on M&A and licensing to generate sales growth over the forecast period

TABLE OF CONTENTS
 
Addendum: 4
 
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5
 
Key findings 5
 
Current positioning: competitive outlook 2004 6
 
Future performance: growth drivers and resistors 2005–10 7
 
Evolution in therapeutic focus: 2004–10 9
 
Key issues facing J&J: 2005 – 10 10
 
Strategic outlook 11
 
CHAPTER 2 GLOBAL COMPANY STRATEGY 19
 
Introduction to Johnson & Johnson 20
 
Assessment of strategic position 20
 
Strengths 20
 
Weaknesses 22
 
Opportunities 23
 
Threats 25
 
Therapeutic foci 26
 
R&D productivity 29
 
Development opportunities 30
 
Organic growth 30
 
Partnerships/licensing 31
 
Mergers and acquisitions 33
 
Geographical expansion 35
 
Implications of financial position 36
 
CHAPTER 3 GLOBAL PORTFOLIO AND PIPELINE ANALYSIS 38
 
Therapy area focus in 2004 39
 
Business development by therapy area 41
 
Forecast revenue stream, 2005–10 43
 
Therapy area forecasts to 2010 43
 
CNS franchise 46
 
Marketed products 46
 
R&D compounds 68
 
CNS portfolio sales forecasts and forecast revenue growth 74
 
Oncology franchise 76
 
Marketed products 76
 
R&D compounds 83
 
Oncology portfolio sales forecasts and forecast revenue growth 90
 
Arthritis, immune & inflammatory franchise 91
 
Marketed products 91
 
R&D compounds 97
 
AIID portfolio sales forecasts and forecast revenue growth 100
 
Gastrointestinal franchise 102
 
Marketed products 102
 
R&D compounds 106
 
Gastrointestinal portfolio sales forecasts and forecast revenue growth 106
 
Women’s health franchise 107
 
Marketed products 107
 
R&D compounds 112
 
Women’s health portfolio sales forecasts and forecast revenue growth 113
 
Infectious disease franchise 113
 
Marketed products 113
 
R&D compounds 121
 
Infectious disease portfolio sales forecasts and forecast revenue growth 124
 
HIV franchise 125
 
Marketed products 125
 
R&D compounds 125
 
HIV portfolio sales forecasts and forecast revenue growth 130
 
Other products 130
 
Marketed products 131
 
R&D compounds 136
 
Other products sales forecasts and forecast revenue growth 140
 
CHAPTER 4 CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT 141
 
Financial position, 2003 - 2004 142
 
Profitability, 2000-2004 142
 
Revenue growth 143
 
Cost structure 144
 
Profitability 145
 
Liquidity, 2000–2004 145
 
2004 performance benchmarking 147
 
Business model clustering according to 2004 cost ratios 147
 
2003 growth and investment momentum 148
 
Key events shaping corporate activity, 2000–2004 150
 
Merger and acquisition activity 150
 
Corporate alliances and deals 154
 
CHAPTER 5 APPENDIX : SUPPORTING DATA 160
 
Financial data 160
 
Exchange rates 160
 
Biogeneric threat 161
 
Methodology for therapy area forecasting 167
 

 

 
LIST OF TABLES
 
Table 1: Johnson & Johnson’s in-licensing deals since January 2004 32
 
Table 2: Johnson & Johnson’s acquisitions of pharmaceutical companies over the last five years 33
 
Table 3: Johnson & Johnson’s regional sales, 2004 35
 
Table 4: Breakdown of J&J’s ethical sales by therapy area, 2003–04 39
 
Table 5: Forecast sales for J&J’s major therapy areas, 2005–10 44
 
Table 6: J&J’s marketed CNS portfolio 46
 
Table 7: J&J’s cardiovascular R&D pipeline, 2004 68
 
Table 8: Forecast sales for J&J’s CNS portfolio, 2004–10 74
 
Table 9: J&J’s marketed oncology portfolio 76
 
Table 10: J&J’s oncology R&D pipeline, 2004 83
 
Table 11: Forecast sales for J&J’s oncology portfolio, 2004–10 90
 
Table 12: J&J’s marketed AIID portfolio 91
 
Table 13: J&J’s AIID R&D pipeline, 2005 97
 
Table 14: Forecast sales for J&J’s AIID portfolio, 2004–10 101
 
Table 15: J&J’s marketed gastrointestinal portfolio 102
 
Table 16: Sales of leading PPIs, 2003-04 104
 
Table 17: Forecast sales for J&J’s gastrointestinal portfolio, 2004–10 106
 
Table 18: J&J’s marketed women’s health portfolio 107
 
Table 19: Forecast sales for J&J’s women’s health portfolio, 2004–10 113
 
Table 20: J&J’s marketed infectious disease portfolio 114
 
Table 21: J&J’s infectious disease R&D pipeline, 2005 121
 
Table 22: Forecast sales for J&J’s infectious disease portfolio, 2004–10 124
 
Table 23: J&J’s HIV R&D pipeline, 2005 125
 
Table 24: Forecast sales for J&J’s HIV portfolio, 2004–10 130
 
Table 25: J&J’s other marketed products 131
 
Table 26: J&J’s other R&D products, 2004 136
 
Table 27: Forecast sales of J&J’s other products portfolio, 2005–10 140
 
Table 28: Johnson & Johnson’s revenues by division, 2003–04 143
 
Table 29: Johnson & Johnson’s operating expenses, 2003–04 144
 
Table 30: Summary of Johnson & Johnson’s historical M&A activity, 2004– 05 151
 
Table 31: Summary of Johnson & Johnson’s historical agreements, 2004–05 154
 
Table 32: Exchange rates*, 2004 160
 
Table 33: Key biological product patent expiries 162
 

 
LIST OF FIGURES
 
Figure 1: Competitive positioning of J&J within the pharmaceutical market, 2004 6
 
Figure 2: J&J’s growth drivers and resistors, 2005–10 7
 
Figure 3: J&J’s evolution of therapeutic focus, 2004–10 9
 
Figure 4: Over the next six years, J&J is at increasing risk from generic competition 10
 
Figure 5: Assessment of J&J’s strategic position, 2005 11
 
Figure 6: Development of Johnson & Johnson’s therapeutic strategy, 2004-10 27
 
Figure 7: Breakdown of Johnson & Johnson’s sales by region, 2003–04 36
 
Figure 8: J&J’s ethical sales breakdown, 2004 40
 
Figure 9: J&J’s business development by therapy area 41
 
Figure 10: Forecast sales for J&J’s major therapy areas, 2005–10 45
 
Figure 11: Johnson & Johnson’s profitability stream, 2000–2004 142
 
Figure 12: Johnson & Johnson’s liquid assets versus total liabilities, 2000–04 146
 
Figure 13: R&D and S,G&A spend and COGS as a proportion of sales, 2004 147
 
Figure 14: Benchmarking of financial strength, 2003 149