Executive Summary

Fibre-to-the-Home is undoubtedly the next development in telecommunications (and broadcasting) infrastructure. Once the 1st and 2nd generation broadband networks are starting to reach penetration levels of 20%, the pressure on the national infrastructure will start to grow. Video based communication will be the killer applications on these networks. Access will be a key issue and eventually through fragmentation of the incumbents and/or regulatory reform, structural separation will take place between the basic infrastructure and the retail activities.

However, the technological resilience of the copper-based network in the wake of broadband has been a setback for the earlier FttH deployment. It is most unlikely that countries with subdued infrastructure-based competition will undertake significant large-scale commercial roll-outs in the near future. Most initial FttH roll-outs are now concentrating on their DSL extensions. Green field developments and niche markets will be the way forward. Other opportunities exist for developers, cities and states/provinces, who see FttH as an important infrastructure development and, as such, are prepared to take the lead in FttH roll-outs. Roll outs in Asia is bucking the trend.

In these countries, governments have been instrumental in the development of fibre infrastructure, they have been assisted by the fact slowly these deployments are becoming more cost effective to install the connections and ‘light up’ the FttH. Countries such as Iceland, Japan, Korea, Singapore and Sweden have been most progressive - already installing extensive fibre connections to neighbourhoods or homes. Japan and Korea are in the process of a nationwide rollout of fibre optic cables. In Iceland, Lina.Net together with Ericsson, has established a residential fibre network capable of delivering speeds of up to 100Mb/s. Furthermore the market in Japan has now been lifted to a level that competition is now driving fibre further into the market. It will also be interesting to see if the commitment from US telcos such as SBC and Verizon are going to eventuate and when.

One of the most likely technologies that will bring us to the next generation of broadband is the 1972 developed Ethernet system from Rank Xerox. This has been further developed to facilitate the requirements of high-speed data, and so-called Gigabit Ethernet will be the preferred network technology of the new carriers that are emerging around the world. But we are not there yet. It will bring network costs down by 60%, but deployment is capital intensive and problems such as scalability still need to be sorted out. The real test however, will be the correct timing and developing the right business models. Telcos are still nervous about this.

1. THE FttH MARKET IN 2005
1.1 Introduction
1.2 FttH Council report
1.3 Regional overview
1.4 Europe
1.5 USA
1.6 Asia
1.6.1 Asia bucking the trend
1.7 DSL success is weakening the business case for FttH
1.8 Growth patterns and predictions
1.8.1 Copper here to stay for another 10-15 years
1.9 Where are the FttH opportunities?
1.9.1 Business market
1.9.2 Infrastructure upgrades
1.9.3 New housing developments
1.9.4 Telcos won’t take a leadership role
1.9.5 Business opportunities for FttH niche telcos
1.9.6 Alternative infrastructure developments
1.10 Reviewing the current status of FttH
1.10.1 No business case for large-scale deployments
1.10.2 Cost analysis - 2005
1.11 Business drivers
1.12 Initial drivers: utilities and local councils
1.13 Structural separation a must for FttH
1.14 Conclusions – analysis by Paul Budde
2. FttH ISSUES
2.1 ‘Build and they will come’ – back in favour
2.2 Optical communications
2.3 FttC definitions
2.4 Future infrastructure – strategic analysis
2.4.1 Future scenario planning
2.4.2 From telecommunications to information highway
2.4.3 Converging networks
2.5 Fibre-based access
2.5.1 Back on the agenda by 2005
2.5.2 Early trials
2.5.3 Massive changes in network management
2.5.4 Migration patterns
2.6 Blown fibre
2.6.1 Introduction
2.6.2 System overview
2.6.3 Key components
2.6.4 Applications
3. GIGABIT ETHERNET
3.1 Optical communications
3.2 LAN Ethernet
3.3 Optical Ethernet networks
3.3.1 Alternatives to DSL and HFC networks
3.3.2 Technologies
3.3.3 The realities of Ethernet
3.4 ITU sets global standard for metro networks
3.5 Regional overviews Gigabit Ethernet developments
3.5.1 Global usage is increasing
3.5.2 Metro Ethernets in the Asia Pacific
3.5.3 Australia
3.5.4 China
3.5.5 Hong Kong
3.5.6 Korea
4. REGIONAL OVERVIEW
4.1 USA
4.1.1 Overview
4.1.2 FttH network rollout
4.1.3 FttH market forecasts
4.1.4 RBOC FttH rollout
4.1.5 Community FttH networks
4.1.6 Government policy and regulation
4.2 Canada
4.2.1 Overview
4.3 Europe
4.3.1 Market overview
4.3.2 Ireland
4.3.3 The Netherlands
4.3.4 Italy
4.3.5 UK
4.3.6 Denmark
4.3.7 France
4.3.8 Sweden
4.4 Asia
4.4.1 Japan
4.4.2 South Korea
4.4.3 China
4.4.4 Other Asian markets
4.5 Middle East
4.5.1 Jordan
4.6 Australia
4.6.1 Test beds in Melbourne
4.6.2 VicUrban FttH project
4.6.3 FttH for Sanctuary Cove
4.6.4 FttH from Telstra
4.6.5 FttH extension program - Telstra
4.6.6 FttH in Perth
4.6.7 BES projects in WA
4.7 New Zealand
4.7.1 Developments - Telecom’s Next Generation Network (NGN)
5. TECHNOLOGY
5.1 Last mile
5.1.1 Fibre, FttH
5.1.2 Passive Optical Networks - PON
5.1.3 First Mile Fibre Ethernet - IEEE 802.3ah
5.1.4 Fibre installation challenges
5.1.5 Fibre to the Curb - FttC and VDSL
5.1.6 Marconi’s TransACT FttC system
5.1.7 Comparison with ADSL, HFC and FttC
5.1.8 VDSL standards confusion and futures
5.1.9 VDSL in Asia and China
5.2 Long distance
5.2.1 Fibre and WDM
6. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS


Exhibit 1 – Optical fibre access around the world (>3 million subscribers)
Exhibit 2 - Residential Broadband (BB) – growth predictions – next ten years
Exhibit 3 - Access Network Technologies
Exhibit 4 - Current broadband services
Exhibit 5 – Traditional networks vs Optical Fibre Networks
Exhibit 6 – Fibre optic network build out – February 2005
Exhibit 7 – FibreWired Network
Exhibit 8 - Alcatel’s BPON platform




Table 1 – FttH growth in Japan – 2002 - 2005
Table 2 – FttH by region - 2005
Table 3 – Number of players involved in Fttx initiatives in Europe – 2005
Table 4 – Projected rollout of fibre networks (FttH and FttN) – 2005 - 2010
Table 5 – FttH growth in Japan – 2002 - 2005
Table 6 - VDSL Data Rates and Distances