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Print and Creative Forecast 2010 is WhatTheyThink’s look back at the year that was (rough as it may have been), and, more importantly, a look ahead at the trends and forces that will impact both print providers and print/media buyers in the next 12 months—and beyond.

This report will, in part, look at what the overall economy may or may not do in the year ahead. This report will also, in another large part, look at what the graphic communications industry may or may not do in the year ahead. And, as we point out in these forecast reports every year, these two elements are not as intertwined as many think. That is, many of the problems the printing industry has are unrelated to the economy and have everything to do with changing trends in media usage and a slack demand for print. Meanwhile, these same media usage trends are also redefining creative’s role in the media and marketing mix, changing the roles of agencies, publishers, and graphic designers.

Table of Contents

Executive Summary11

For More Information .11
The State of the Printing Industry12
Demographics....12
Printing Shipments...13
Printing Profits ...15
Business Conditions 16
Capital Expenditures Revisited19
Shipments Forecasts.20
The State of the Creative Industries..21
Demographics....21
Design Firms ...21
Ad Agencies ....22
Periodical Publishers23
Book Publishers.23
Newspaper Publishers....24
Non-Employer Statistics...25
Creative Business Conditions26
AIGA Design Leaders Confidence Index...26
Magazine Ad Pages .27
Newspaper Ad Revenue.29
Books 30
Top Trends for 2010....31
What’s Hot and What’s Not....31
Hot Items...31
Warm Items.....32
Cold Items..34
[Dis]honorable Mention....34

Introduction.....35

About the Present Report....35
How This Report Is Organized.35
For More Information...36

1. The State of the Printing Industry .37

Demographics .38
Establishments ..38
Employees.39
Payroll..40
Capital Expenditures41
Printing Shipments 42
Printing Profits.45
Business Conditions....47
Current Business Conditions .47
Expected Business Conditions 51
Business Conditions Index.....55
Capital Expenditures Revisited..56
Shipments Forecasts...59
Onward....59

2. The State of the Creative Industries....60

Demographics .61
Design Firms61
Number of Establishments .....61
Employees.62
Payroll.63
Capital Expenditures64
Ad Agencies.65
Establishments.65
Employees.66
Payroll.67
Capital Expenditures68
Periodical Publishers .69
Establishments.69
Employees.70
Payroll.71
Book Publishers.72
Establishments.72
Employees.73
Payroll.74
Newspaper Publishers.....75
Establishments.75
Employees.76
Payroll.77
Capital Expenditures for All Publishers .....78
Non-Employer Statistics...79
Design Firms ...79
Agencies....81
Publishers ..83
Creative Business Conditions....85
AIGA Design Leaders Confidence Index .....85
Magazine Ad Pages.86
Newspaper Ad Revenue..88
Books...89
Onward....92

3. Top Trends for 2010..93

What’s Hot and What’s Not .93
Hot Items ...93
Warm Items .93
Cold Items..93
[Dis]honorable Mention....93
Hot, Warm, and Cold Items in Detail .94
Hot Items ...94
Social Media....94
Mobile.98
Search103
Crowd-Sourcing.....104
Open-Source Everything105
Warm Items .....107
E-Books...107
“Green” Printing....108
Web-to-Print..112
Inkjet Printing113
AR/QR ....113
Cold Items115
Offset vs. Digital....115
“Workflow”...115
[Dis]Honorable Mention .116
The Economy 116

4. WhatTheyThink’s 2010 Graphic Communications Forecast and
Recommendations120

Printing Markets ..120
Creative Markets .123
Publishing Markets....125
The Last Word.....127

Table of Figures

Figure 1: U.S. Printing Shipments, January to September 2005–2009.13
Figure 2: Comparison of Current-Dollar and Inflation-Adjusted Shipments, 1993–
2009 ($ billion) ...14
Figure 3: Printing Industry Shipments vs. Profits, 1995–2009 15
Figure 4: In Terms of Your Revenues at This Location, How Has 2009 Compared
to 2008? —All Responses, September 2009.....16
Figure 5: Do You Expect 2010 Revenues Compared to 2009 to... —All
Responses, September 2009 17
Figure 6: Business Conditions Index (BCI) for All Printing Establishments, March
2008–September 2009 ....18
Figure 7: Do You Have Plans to Make Any Capital Investments in Your Business
in 2009? —All Responses, March 2009.19
Figure 8: If Yes, What Area(s) Will These Be in? (multiple responses permitted)
—All Responses, March 2009 .20
Figure 9: AIGA Design Leaders Confidence Index (April 2005=100), 2005–2009
.....26
Figure 10: Indexed Publishers Information Bureau Magazine Ad Pages
(1998=100), 1999–2009 ..27
Figure 11: American Business Media Change in B2B Ad Pages Compared to
Prior Year, 2004–2009.....28
Figure 12: Inflation-Adjusted Newspaper Ad Dollars, Annualized as 4-Quarter
Moving Totals, 1971–2008.....29
Figure 13: Number of Commercial Printing Establishments (NAICS 32311),
1993–2007.38
Figure 14: Number of Commercial Printing Employees (NAICS 32311), 1993–
2007.....39
Figure 15: Annual Commercial Printing Payroll (NAICS 32311) ($000), 1993–
2007.....40
Figure 16: Commercial Printing Capital Expenditures (NAICS 32311), 2005–
2007 ($000) .41
Figure 17: Current-Dollar U.S. Printing and Printing Services Shipments, Monthby-
Month, 2003–200942
Figure 18: Inflation-Adjusted U.S. Printing and Printing Services Shipments,
Month-by-Month, 2003–2009.43
Figure 19: Inflation-Adjusted U.S. Printing and Printing Services Shipments,
Month-by-Month, 2005–2009 w/Forecast through Dec. 2009..43
Figure 20: U.S. Printing Shipments, January to September 2005–2009.44
Figure 21: Comparison of Current-Dollar and Inflation-Adjusted Shipments,
1993–2009 ($ billion) .44
Figure 22: Inflation-Adjusted Profits Before Interest & Taxes, 1994–2009, 4-qtr
moving total ($ billion)45
Figure 23: Printing Industry Shipments vs. Profits, 1995–2009 46
Figure 24: In Terms of Your Revenues at This Location, How Has 2009
Compared to 2008? —All Responses, September 2009 .48
Figure 25: In Terms of Your Revenues at This Location, How Has the First Half
of 2009 Compared to the First Half of 2008? —All Responses, June 200950
Figure 26: Do You Expect 2010 Revenues Compared to 2009 to... —All
Responses, September 2009 52
Figure 27: Do You Expect 2009 Revenues Compared to 2008 to... —All
Responses, June 2009 ....53
Figure 28: Business Conditions Index (BCI) for All Printing Establishments,
March 2008–September 2009 .55
Figure 29: Do You Have Plans to Make Any Capital Investments in Your
Business in 2009? —All Responses, March 2009 .....56
Figure 30: If Yes, What Area(s) Will These Be in? (multiple responses permitted)
—All Responses, March 2009 .57
Figure 31: Number of Design Establishments (NAICS 541430), 1998–200761
Figure 32: Number of Design Employees (NAICS 541430), 1998–2007 62
Figure 33: Annual Design Payroll (NAICS 541430), 1998–2007.....63
Figure 34: Total Design Firm Equipment Capital Expenditures (NAICS 5414),
1999–2007 ($ million) 64
Figure 35: Number of Ad Agency Establishments (NAICS 5418), 1998–2007 ...65
Figure 36: Number of Ad Agency Employees (NAICS 5418), 1998–2007....66
Figure 37: Annual Ad Agency Payroll (NAICS 5418), 1998–2007 ..67
Figure 38: Total Ad Agency Equipment Capital Expenditures (NAICS 5418),
1999–2007 ($ million) 68
Figure 39: Number of Periodical Publishing Establishments (NAICS 511120),
1998–2007.69
Figure 40: Number of Periodical Publishing Employees (NAICS 511120), 1998–
2007.....70
Figure 41: Annual Periodical Publishing Payroll (NAICS 511120), 1998–2007 ..71
Figure 42: Number of Book Publishing Establishments (NAICS 511130), 1998–
2007.....72
Figure 43: Number of Book Publishing Employees (NAICS 511130), 1998–2007
.....73
Figure 44: Annual Book Publishing Payroll (NAICS 511130), 1998–2007....74
Figure 45: Number of Newspaper Publishing Establishments (NAICS 511110),
1998–2007.75
Figure 46: Number of Newspaper Publishing Employees (NAICS 511110), 1998–
2007.....76
Figure 47: Annual Newspaper Publishing Payroll (NAICS 511110), 1998–2007
.....77
Figure 48: Total Newspaper, Periodical, and Book Publishing Equipment Capital
Expenditures (NAICS 5411), 1999–2007 ($ million) ..78
Figure 49: Number of Specialized Design Services Establishments (NAICS
5414), 1997–2007....79
Figure 50: Specialized Design Services Receipts (NAICS 5414), 1997–2007
($000) ..80
Figure 51: Number of Advertising and Related Services Establishments (NAICS
5418), 1997–2007....81
Figure 52: Advertising and Related Services Receipts (NAICS 5418), 1997–
2007 ($000) .82
Figure 53: Number of Publishing Establishments (NAICS 5411), 1997–2007 ....83
Figure 54: Publishing Receipts (NAICS 5411), 1997–2007 ($000).84
Figure 55: AIGA Design Leaders Confidence Index (April 2005=100), 2005–
2009.....85
Figure 56: Indexed Publishers Information Bureau Magazine Ad Pages
(1998=100), 1999–2009 ..86
Figure 57: American Business Media Change in B2B Ad Pages Compared to
Prior Year, 2004–2009.....87
Figure 58: Inflation-Adjusted Newspaper Ad Dollars, Annualized as 4-Quarter
Moving Totals, 1971–2008.....88
Figure 59: Book Categories as a Percentage of Book Sales, 2008 90
Figure 60: E-Book Sales, 2003–2008 ...92
Figure 61: Is Your Company Active in Any Social Media? —All Responses,
September 2009 (multiple responses permitted) .95
Figure 62: Will Your Business Be Offering Social Media Management
Capabilities as a Billable Service for Your Clients in 2010? —All Responses,
September 2009 96
Figure 63: U.S. Mobile Phone Users and Penetration, 2008–2013 (millions and %
of Population)...100
Figure 64: U.S. Mobile Advertising Spending, 2008–2013 ($ million) .101
Figure 65: U.S. Search Marketing Spending Forecast....103
Figure 66: Does Your Company... (multiple responses permitted) —All
Respondents, March 2008 and June 2009 109
Figure 67: Please Identify Any of the Items Below as They Relate to Your
Company’s Experience with “Environmentally Responsible” or “Sustainable
Printing” (multiple responses permitted) —All Responses, March 2008 and
June 2009110
Figure 68: If Your Company Has Not Specifically Implemented Certified
Environmentally Sustainable Processes or Initiatives, Do You Have Plans to
Implement Any in the Next 12 Months? —All Respondents, June 2009....111
Figure 69: QR Code from Dr. Joe Webb’s Print09 Presentation...114

Table of Tables

Table 1: Printing Industry Demographics (NAICS 32311)—Establishments,
Employees, and Payroll ...12
Table 2: Printing Industry Capital Expenditures (NAICS 32311)($000).13
Table 3: WTT ERC’s Forecast of Printing Industry Shipments, 2009–2014 ($
billion) ..20
Table 4: Design Firm Demographics (NAICS 54130)—Establishments,
Employees, Payroll, Capital Expenditures ...21
Table 5: Ad Agency Demographics (NAICS 5418)—Establishments, Employees,
Payroll, Capital Expenditures.22
Table 6: Periodical Publisher Demographics (NAICS 511120)—Establishments,
Employees, Payroll ..23
Table 7: Book Publisher Demographics (NAICS 511130)—Establishments,
Employees, Payroll ..23
Table 8: Newspaper Publisher Demographics (NAICS 511110)—Establishments,
Employees, Payroll ..24
Table 9: Capital Expenditures for All Publishers .24
Table 10: Publishing, Design, and Agency Non-Employer Statistics—
Establishments and Receipts.25
Table 11: Monthly Book Sales, July–August, 2009...30
Table 12: In Terms of Your Revenues at This Location, How Has 2009
Compared to 2008? —By Employee Size, September 2009 ...48
Table 13: In Terms of Your Revenues at This Location, How Has 2009
Compared to 2008? —By Print Classification, September 2009....49
Table 14: In Terms of Your Revenues at This Location, How Has the First Half of
2009 Compared to the First Half of 2008 —By Employee Size, June 200950
Table 15: In Terms of Your Revenues at This Location, How Has the First Half of
2009 Compared to the First Half of 2008 —By Print Classification, June
2009.....51
Table 16: Do You Expect 2010 Revenues Compared to 2009 to... —By
Employee Size, September 2009 ..52
Table 17: Do You Expect 2010 Revenues Compared to 2009 to... —By Print
Classification, September 2009 .....52
Table 18: Do You Expect 2009 Revenues Compared to 2008 to... —By
Employee Size, June 2009 ....54
Table 19: Do You Expect 2009 Revenues Compared to 2008 to... —By Print
Classification, June 2009.54
Table 20: Do You Have Plans to Make Any Capital Investments in Your Business
in 2009? —By Establishment Size, March 200957
Table 21: If Yes, What Area(s) Will These Be in? (multiple responses permitted)
—By Establishment Size, March 2009.58
Table 22: WTT ERC’s Forecast of Printing Industry Shipments, 2009–2014 ($
billion) ..59
Table 23: Monthly Book Sales, July–August, 2009...89
Table 24: Estimated Net U.S. Book Sales, 2002–2008.....91
Table 25: Is Your Company Active in Any Social Media? —By Employee Size,
September 2009 (multiple responses permitted) .95
Table 26: Will Your Business Be Offering Social Media Management Capabilities
as a Billable Service for Your Clients in 2010? —By Employee Size,
September 2009 96
Table 27: U.S. Mobile Advertising Spending Share by Format, 2008–2013 (% of
Total) .102
Table 28: U.S. Mobile Phone Users and iPhone Users Who Recall Viewing
Mobile Advertising, by Type, Q1 2009 (% of Respondents in Each Group)
.....102