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A spell of warm and dry weather in the later months of 2009 looks to have improved the fortunes of Canada's crop production for the 2009/10 harvest year. Earlier in the year, the situation had looked pretty bleak. The prairies of western Canada were hit by a fierce drought while cool, damp weather in the east held back crop growth. We have revised up our production forecasts for some principle grain crops to reflect the improvement in conditions. Our forecast for 2009/10 wheat production has been raised by 11.0% from the previous quarter to 25.63mn tonnes, while we have raised our barley production forecast to 9.30mn tonnes, up 5.1% from our previous forecast of 8.85mn tonnes. Despite the upgrades, we still expect production of both wheat and barley to be well down on the bumper 2008/09 crop.
The large crops of wheat and barley saw a change in feed grain demand in 2008/09 as livestock farmers increased their use of these crops at the expense of corn. In 2009/10, we expect demand for feed wheat and barley to fall back owing to the contraction in the livestock sector. Demand for grains from the hog sector will be particularly hard hit as farmers continue to drawdown their herds and many leave the sector.
Farmers wishing to exit the sector will be helped by the Hog Farm Transition Program announced in mid- 2009. The programme has a budget of CAD75mn to compensate farmers who commit to not producing for three years. Farmers have been invited to submit tenders for how much they require to cease production. The first tender with a budget of CAD10mn was held on November 4 2009. The tender will see 126,214 animals taken out of production, including 21,997 sows, with an average payout of CAD765.52 per head. The second tender was scheduled to be held on December 9 2009 with demand expected to be high.
Farmers wishing to continue through the current crisis can apply for help with debts through the Hog Industry Loan Loss Reserve Program. The government will work with financial institutions to issue loans, though farmers must produce a viable business plan for surviving beyond the crisis. Although the fall in pork production will undoubtedly be supportive of prices, much of the programme's success will depend on moves south of the border. With the North American pork market well integrated, the reduction in the Canadian hog herd will need to be accompanied by a reduction in the US to have a major impact on prices. Just how bad things are for Canadian hog farmers was amply shown in November 2009 when Big Sky Farms, Saskatchewan's largest pig farm, filed for creditor protection. The farm is majority owned by the Saskatchewan provincial government and the move sent shockwaves through the industry.

Executive Summary .....5
SWOT Analysis 6
Canada Agricultural SWOT ........... 6
Industry Forecast Scenario ..7
Canada Sugar Outlook .......... 7
Table: Canada Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade . 7
Table: Canada Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade . 8
Canada Livestock Outlook ..... 9
Table: Canada Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade ...... 9
Table: Canada Pork Production, Consumption & Trade . 10
Table: Canada Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade ............. 10
Table: Canada Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade .... 15
Table: Canada Pork Production, Consumption & Trade . 15
Table: Canada Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade ............. 15
Canada Dairy Outlook ......... 17
Canada Dairy Outlook ......... 17
Table: Canada Milk Production, Consumption & Trade . 18
Table: Canada Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ...... 18
Table: Canada Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade ..... 18
Table: Canada Milk Production, Consumption & Trade . 21
Table: Canada Butter Production, Consumption & Trade ...... 21
Table: Canada Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade ..... 22
Canada Soybean Outlook ..... 23
Table: Canada Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade ... 24
Table: Canada Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade ... 25
Canada Grain Outlook ........ 26
Table: Canada Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ...... 27
Table: Canada Corn Production, Consumption & Trade 27
Table: Canada Barley Production, Consumption & Trade ...... 28
Table: Canada Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade ...... 29
Table: Canada Corn Production, Consumption & Trade 30
Table: Canada Barley Production, Consumption & Trade ...... 30
Canada Rice Outlook ........... 31
Table: Canada Rice Production, Consumption & Trade . 31
Table: Canada Rice Production, Consumption & Trade . 31
Competitive Landscape .....33
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders .... 33
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers ..... 34
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers ........... 35
Commodity Price Analysis 36
Corn ......... 36
Table: Corn ..... 36
Rice .......... 37
Table: Rice ....... 37
Soy ... 38
Table: Soybean 38
Wheat ............ 39
Table: Wheat .... 39
Softs Update ..40
Cocoa ....... 40
Table: Cocoa ... 40
Coffee ............ 41
Table: Coffee ... 41
Milk .. 42
Table: Milk ...... 42
Sugar ............ 43
Table: Sugar .... 43
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis 44
Industry Forecast Scenario – Food ... 44
Food Consumption .......... 44
Canada Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013 .... 45
Confectionery ... 45
Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013 .. 45
Canned Food ... 45
Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013 ... 46
Trade ....... 46
Food & Drink Trade Balance -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013 .......... 46
Industry Forecast Scenario – Retail .. 47
Industry Forecast Scenario – Retail .. 47
Canada Mass Grocery Retail -- Value Sales by Format -- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2005-2013 ....... 48
Macroeconomic Forecast .... 49
Table: Canada - GDP By Expenditure . 52
Industry Forecast .......53
Global Rapeseed Outlook .... 53
Global Rapeseed Production & Consumption .... 54
Global Rapeseed Production & Consumption .... 54
Industry Trend Analysis ....55
Canada Digs In Heels With WTO ..... 55
BMI Forecast Modelling .....57
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .............. 57