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Venezuela's food and agriculture industries were as eventful as ever in the second half of 2009. As much of the country suffered from intense water shortages owing to poor rains, government seizures of land and processing facilities continued apace. In December, the agriculture minister said the government had seized almost half a million hectares of supposedly unproductive farmland in 2009. Many landowners who have had land seized have denied claims that it was being underused.
The government is hoping that it will be able to boost production on the seized land once Venezuela emerges from the El Niño-related drought that gripped the country in the second half of 2009. In 2010, the agriculture ministry has pledged to concentrate on improving government-controlled land with new irrigation projects rather than seizing yet more new land. This will be welcomed by nervous farmers. With Venezuela set for another year of recession in 2010, the government will need to see success with its land seizures if food imports are not to rise again.
Land has not been the only factor of production to take the government's eye in 2009. The second half of the year saw the seizure of a number of sugar mills and coffee roasters. The temporary takeover of coffee company Fama de America in August was made permanent in November. Cafea, a smaller roaster based in Táchira State, was also acquired by the government. At the time of writing, the government was in discussions with one of the country's other coffee majors, Cafe Madrid, over the formation of a joint venture. An outright government acquisition is still by no means out of the question, however. In October 2009, the Venezuelan government seized two sugar mills in the western border states of Táchira and Zulia. El Universal reported that the Ministry of Agriculture and Lands said the seizures were needed as the mills' owners had put the desire for excessive profits before the needs of their workers and the general public. The owners of the Zulia mill had raised the ire of the government in September by declaring a temporary shutdown leaving around 1,000 employees out of work. The seizures mean that six of Venezuela's 15 sugar mills are under government control.
The moves puts the government among the major players in both the sugar and coffee sectors. President Hugo Chávez is banking on the government's acquisitions in the sectors to allow it to ensure regular supplies of sugar and coffee at the official prices. After years of underinvestmnet in capacity expansion, however, we are somewhat doubtful that the government will be able to guarantee enough supplies to the market anytime soon. We expect localised supply shortages to continue and many consumers will be forced to turn to the blackmarket for supplies of key staples.

SWOT Analysis............6
Venezuela Agricultural SWOT ..... 6
Industry Forecast Scenario 7
Venezuela Grain Outlook........... 7
Table: Venezuela Wheat Consumption & Trade . 8
Table: Venezuela Corn Production, Consumption & Trade .... 8
Table: Venezuela Wheat Consumption & Trade . 9
Table: Venezuela Corn Production, Consumption & Trade .. 10
Venezuela Cocoa Outlook........ 11
Table: Venezuela Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade . 12
Table: Venezuela Cocoa Production, Consumption & Trade . 12
Venezuela Sugar Outlook......... 13
Table: Venezuela Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade .. 14
Table: Venezuela Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade .. 15
Venezuela Dairy Outlook......... 17
Table: Venezuela Milk Production & Consumption........ 18
Table: Venezuela Butter Production, Consumption & Trade . 18
Table: Venezuela Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade 18
Table: Venezuela Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade ... 19
Table: Venezuela Milk Production & Consumption........ 20
Table: Venezuela Butter Production, Consumption & Trade . 21
Table: Venezuela Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade 21
Table: Venezuela Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade ... 21
Venezuela Coffee Outlook........ 23
Table: Venezuela Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade . 24
Table: Venezuela Coffee Production, Consumption & Trade . 26
Venezuela Livestock Outlook ... 27
Table: Venezuela Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade ............. 28
Table: Venezuela Pork Production, Consumption & Trade ... 28
Table: Venezuela Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade ...... 29
Table :Venezuela Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade ............. 30
Table: Venezuela Pork Production, Consumption & Trade ... 30
Table: Venezuela Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade ...... 30
Competitive Landscape ...32
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders ... 32
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers ... 33
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers 34
Commodity Price Analysis ............35
Corn ............. 35
Table: Corn . 35
Rice 36
Table: Rice ... 36
Soy ...... 37
Table: Soybean ..... 37
Wheat .. 38
Table: Wheat 38
Softs Update 39
Cocoa ........... 39
Table: Cocoa ........ 39
Coffee .. 40
Table: Coffee ........ 40
Milk ..... 41
Table: Milk .. 41
Sugar .. 42
Table: Sugar 42
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis ......43
Industry Forecast Scenario – Food . 43
Food Consumption 43
Venezuela: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts ... 44
Canned Food ........ 45
Venezuela: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts........... 45
Confectionery ........ 46
Confectionery Value/Volume Sales - Historical Data & Forecasts ....... 47
Trade ........... 48
Venezuela: Food, Drink & Tobacco Trade -- Historical Data & Forecasts (US$mn) . 49
Industry Forecast Scenario – Retail 50
Industry Forecast Scenario – Retail 50
Venezuela Mass Grocery Retail - Value Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts .. 51
Sales Breakdown by Retail Format Type . 51
Macroeconomic Forecast ........ 52
Table: Venezuela - Economic Activity ...... 54
BMI Forecast Modelling ...55
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ... 55