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The second half of 2009 saw fears over the safety of Chinese dairy products make a reappearance. The government has been trying to draw a line under the melamine adulteration scandal with harsh punishments for those found to have been involved - in November two men were executed for supplying milk powder containing melamine. In December three employees of a dairy company in Shaanxi Province were arrested after inspectors discovered contaminated product.
More worrying was news released in January that a Shanghai dairy allegedly sold dairy products that had been returned in a recall following the breaking of the melamine story in 2008. What was most concerning about this story were claims made in a New York Times report that the problem had been known about since early 2009. Indeed, the dairy was closed and arrests made in April, according to the report. If the report proves to be accurate, the failure of the food inspection agencies to make an announcement at the time about the dangers of products from the dairy calls into question how serious the authorities are in rebuilding confidence in the safety of China's food products. Any further suggestion that government agencies are not being upfront about discoveries of contamination could dent confidence in Chinese-produced dairy goods and other food products both at home and abroad.
Away from the dairy sector, fears of the safety of pork consumption in the wake of the H1N1 swine flu scare seem to have dissipated. At the start of December 2009, China lifted the ban on imports of pork from Mexico and parts of the US and Canada. News in the previous month that pigs in Heilongjiang had tested positive for the virus does not seem to have affected Chinese consumers' appetite for pork. The situation for China's hog farmers improved considerably through the second half of 2009 as increased demand and government action saw pork prices climb rapidly. We expect the rise to continue in the first quarter of 2010 in the run up to Chinese New Year in mid-February. The high prices should spur strong growth in pork production in 2010.
The expansion of China's dairy and livestock sectors is driving a rapid increase in demand for feed, primarily soybeans and corn. China is reliant on massive imports of soybeans but at present is still a netexporter of corn. The government is keen to keep it this way and has launched a series of measures to try and boost corn production. Traditionally, the government's focus has been more on the food staples of rice and wheat but in November 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission said it would shift its focus to boosting corn production over the next decade. The commission will encourage the expansion of the area planted to corn and increase the floor price paid to farmers. Potentially more significant for corn production was a decision by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture at the beginning of December to allow the use of a number of genetically modified (GM) strains of corn and rice. Though it will likely take a few years of trials before large scale GM corn production is introduced, in the longer term we see the adoption of GM crops to be a huge opportunity for boosting yields.

Executive Summary ......5
SWOT Analysis..............6
China Agricultural SWOT.............. 6
Industry Forecast Scenario ..............7
China Livestock Outlook... 7
Table :China Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade .. 8
Table: China Pork Production, Consumption & Trade ...... 8
Table :China Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade.............. 8
Table: China Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade 12
Table: China Pork Production, Consumption & Trade .... 12
Table: China Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade............ 13
China Grains Outlook..... 14
Table: China Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade .. 15
Table: China Corn Production, Consumption & Trade.... 15
Table: China Barley Production, Consumption & Trade.. 15
Table: China Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade .. 17
Table: China Corn Production, Consumption & Trade.... 18
Table: China Barley Production, Consumption & Trade.. 18
China Sugar Outlook ...... 20
China Sugar Outlook ...... 20
Table: China Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade... 21
Table: China Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade... 22
China Rice Outlook......... 23
Table: China Rice Production, Consumption & Trade ..... 24
Table: China Rice Production, Consumption & Trade ..... 25
China Soybean Outlook .. 26
Table: China Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade.................. 27
Table: China Soybean Production, Consumption & Trade.................. 29
China Dairy Outlook ...... 30
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption ................ 31
Table: China Butter Production, Consumption & Trade .. 31
Table: China Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade. 31
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade. 32
Table: China Milk Production & Consumption ................ 35
Table: China Butter Production, Consumption & Trade .. 35
Table: China Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade. 36
Table: China Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade. 36
Industry Business Environment Overview.....38
Global Agribusiness Business Environment Ratings.............. 38
Global Agribusiness Business Environment Ratings......... 42
Competitive Landscape.................44
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders ..... 44
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers ..... 45
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers....... 46
Commodity Price Analysis............47
Grains Update ................ 47
Corn........ 47
Table: Corn ............... 47
Rice......... 48
Table: Rice................. 48
Soy .......... 49
Table: Soybean .......... 49
Wheat...... 50
Table: Wheat.............. 50
Softs Update. 51
Cocoa...... 51
Table: Cocoa ............. 51
Coffee...... 52
Table: Coffee ............. 52
Milk......... 53
Table: Milk ................ 53
Sugar ...... 54
Table: Sugar .............. 54
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis...............55
Industry Forecast Scenario – Food... 55
Food Consumption..... 55
Table: China Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts......... 56
Canned Food ............. 56
Table: China Food Sub-Sectors -- Historical & Forecast Sales Data .. 57
Instant Noodles .......... 57
Confectionery............. 58
Table: China Confectionery Sub-Sectors -- Historical & Forecast Sales Data....... 59
Trade ...... 60
Table: China Food & Drink Trade Balance -- Historical Data & Forecasts.......... 61
Industry Forecast Scenario – Retail.. 62
Industry Forecast Scenario – Retail.. 62
Table: China MGR Retail Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts .. 64
Table: Grocery Retail Sales by Format -- Historical Data & Forecasts................. 64
Economic Analysis.......... 65
2010 Will Test The Investment Model ............. 65
M&A Analysis ..............68
Chinese Dairy Seeks Footprint In Sugar Market . 68
Industry Trend Analysis ................69
China To Become Long Term Net Corn Importer 69
BMI Forecast Modelling.................71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .......... 71