Ajouter aux favoris   Ajouter cette page à mon bookmark --- SOCIAL BOOKMARKING --- Digg Furl del.icio.us Netscape

In the final quarter of 2009, Vietnam was hit by a succession of storms. Typhoon Ketsana which hit the country in late September was followed by Typhoon Mirinae which made land on the south central coast in early November. The damage for the most of Vietnam's commodities was fairly localised with only a small impact on total production. For Vietnam's valuable coffee crop, however, the storms have been more damaging. The heavy rains disrupted the harvesting and drying process. This will see both production and quality fall in 2010.
The storms also hit some of Vietnam's major cane growing areas on the central coast. This contributed to a fall in cane production. The shortage of cane combined with the rapid surge in the price of sugar on the world market has seen the prices received by farmers for their cane rise rapidly. This is good news for the sector and should see sugar production increase in the 2010/11 harvest year following two years of low output. Low cane prices and high input costs in previous years has seen many farmers abandon cane production, replacing it with other crops such as corn and cassava. Much of the problem of low profitability is down to the low yields for sugar cane production in Vietnam.
With the start of the cool season an old enemy of Vietnam's poultry sector returned after being absent since June. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was found in a poultry flock in the northern province of Lai Chau in November. Almost 2,000 birds were culled in the incident. Outbreaks continued across the country through December. Unless effective measures can be put in place to stop the return of the disease every cool season, it will continue to be a major threat to the country's poultry producers. Vietnam's pork producers were also having a tough time in the final quarter of last year. In the last few months of 2009 the price of pork in Vietnam fell sharply. An abundance of supply is being blamed for the fall. This is bad news for the country's pork producers who have had a difficult time over the past couple of years with high feed and fuel prices in 2008 followed by the economic slump in 2009. Pork producers in China suffered a similar problem in the first half of 2009 but a combination of government action and a return of demand saw prices rise again in the second half of the year. We do not expect any government help for Vietnam's producers, but demand is likely to pick up in the run up to the T?t festival in mid- February. This should mop up the excess of supply and bring prices back up.

Executive Summary ......5
SWOT Analysis..............6
Vietnam Agricultural SWOT.......... 6
Industry Forecast Scenario ..............7
Vietnam Sugar Outlook..... 7
Table: Vietnam Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade . 8
Table: Vietnam Sugar Production, Consumption & Trade .................. 10
Vietnam Livestock Outlook ............... 11
Table: Vietnam Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade................ 12
Table: Vietnam Pork Production, Consumption & Trade. 12
Table: Vietnam Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade ......... 12
Table: Vietnam Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade................ 16
Table: Vietnam Pork Production, Consumption & Trade. 16
Table: Vietnam Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade ......... 16
Vietnam Coffee Outlook.. 18
Vietnam Coffee Outlook.. 18
Table: Vietnam Coffee Production & Consumption.......... 19
Table: Vietnam Coffee Production & Consumption.......... 20
Vietnam Dairy Outlook... 22
Table: Vietnam Milk Production & Consumption............. 23
Table: Vietnam Butter Production, Consumption & Trade.................. 23
Table: Vietnam Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade ................ 23
Table: Vietnam Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade ............... 24
Table: Vietnam Milk Production & Consumption............. 26
Table: Vietnam Butter Production, Consumption & Trade.................. 26
Table: Vietnam Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade ................ 27
Table: Vietnam Whole Milk Powder Production, Consumption & Trade ............... 27
Vietnam Grains Outlook . 29
Table: Vietnam Corn Production, Consumption & Trade. 30
Table: Vietnam Corn Production, Consumption & Trade. 30
Vietnam Rice Outlook ..... 31
Table: Vietnam Rice Production, Consumption & Trade.. 32
Table: Vietnam Rice Production, Consumption & Trade.. 34
Industry Business Environment Overview.....36
Global Agribusiness Business Environment Ratings.............. 36
Global Agribusiness Business Environment Ratings......... 40
Competitive Landscape.................42
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders ..... 42
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers ..... 43
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers....... 44
Commodity Price Analysis............45
Grains Update ................ 45
Corn........ 45
Table: Corn ............... 45
Rice......... 46
Table: Rice................. 46
Soy .......... 47
Table: Soybean .......... 47
Wheat...... 48
Table: Wheat.............. 48
Softs Update. 49
Cocoa...... 49
Table: Cocoa ............. 49
Coffee...... 50
Table: Coffee ............. 50
Milk......... 51
Table: Milk ................ 51
Sugar ...... 52
Table: Sugar .............. 52
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis...............53
Industry Forecast Scenario – Food... 53
Food Consumption..... 53
Table: Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts . 54
Canned Food ............. 55
Confectionery............. 55
Table: Value/Volume Sales of Selected Food Sub-Sectors -- Historical Data & Forecasts ....... 56
Trade ...... 57
Vietnam Food & Drink Trade Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts (US$mn).................. 57
Industry Forecast Scenario – Retail.. 58
Table: Vietnam MGR Indicators -- Value Sales by Format, Historical Data & Forecasts ........ 60
Grocery Retail Sales by Format - Historical Data & Forecasts (%) .... 60
Economic Outlook........... 61
Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity................ 63
Industry Trend Analysis ................64
Fund To Improve Farmers Earnings Potential .... 64
BMI Forecast Modelling.................66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .......... 66