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In BMI's latest France Agribusiness Report, we forecast mixed fortunes for French grain, livestock and dairy production over the short and medium term. Production of poultry, beef and pork have all been in decline for some time, and we see nothing to suggest the rot will stop. Wheat and barley production, which is tethered to livestock rearing in their role as feed, will suffer too. Meanwhile, the dairy industry, despite its recent troubles, should perform fairly well in an EU market which looks unlikely to see significant reform to the Common Agricultural Policy.
We expect a decline in poultry production of just over 1% in both 2009 and 2010, as sluggish exports both within and out of the EU force cuts. Over our forecast period, we expect a decline in output of 5.43% over our forecast period to 2014. Avian flu, which has provoked bans on French chicken exports in both Sri Lanka and the Philippines in recent weeks, remains a key risk to our forecasts. To 2014 we expect pork production to fall by 3.8% and beef production to fall 10.3%.
Over the short term, wheat production is set to rise. French farmers are expected to switch to wheat from barley, prices for which have reached intervention levels. We expect 2009/10 wheat production to rise 3.2% y-o-y. Over our forecast period we expect production to fall by 10.1%, as the travails of France's livestock industry hit demand for feed.
Over 2009/10, wheat's gain will be barley's loss. Barley production came in unexpectedly high last year, causing stocks to rise and prices to tank. Over 2008/09, 12.9mn tonnes of barley were harvested, according to Eurostat, up 1.1mn tonnes on our previous report. We have now revised down our production forecast for 2009/10 to 11.5mn tonnes. Over our five-year forecast period from 2008/09, we now expect barley production to fall by 14.5% to 2013/14. New Eurostat figures show the 2008/09 corn harvest was healthier than previously thought, with production coming in at 15.0mn tonnes. Corn will show healthy growth over the forecast period, increasing by 15.35%.
This quarter we have revised our historical milk production figures in line with those supplied by Eurostat. This will ensure consistency with our reports on other EU markets. Towards the end of 2009, following months of decline, milk prices began to climb in most parts of France. We cautiously forecast an increase in production for 2010 to 23.6mn tonnes, as the reintroduction of export subsidies starts to have an effect on output. Over our forecast period, we expect to see a slight increase in milk production of 3.6% to 2014, as larger producers take advantage of 1% quota increases year by year.
Cheese production is expected to fare even better. We are penciling in another slight fall in production for 2009 as a whole, to 1.85mn tonnes, as a result of the economic slowdown in France and most export markets. But as the global economy recovers, we expect cheese production to increase. We are forecasting a 6.9% increase in French cheese production over our forecast period.

Executive Summary ......5
SWOT Analysis..............7
France Agricultural SWOT............ 7
Industry Forecast Scenario ..............8
France Grains Outlook..... 8
Table: France Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade .. 9
Table: France Corn Production, Consumption & Trade .... 9
Table: France Barley Production, Consumption & Trade.. 9
Table: France Wheat Production, Consumption & Trade 11
Table: France Corn Production, Consumption & Trade .. 11
Table: France Barley Production, Consumption & Trade 11
France Dairy Outlook..... 13
Table: France Milk Production & Consumption .............. 14
Table: France Butter Production, Consumption & Trade. 14
Table: France Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade .................. 14
Table: France Milk Production & Consumption .............. 18
Table: France Butter Production, Consumption & Trade. 18
Table: France Cheese Production, Consumption & Trade .................. 18
France Livestock Outlook ................. 20
France Livestock Outlook ................. 20
Table: France Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade.................. 21
Table: France Pork Production, Consumption & Trade... 21
Table: France Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade ........... 21
Table: France Poultry Production, Consumption & Trade.................. 24
Table: France Pork Production, Consumption & Trade... 24
Table: France Beef & Veal Production, Consumption & Trade ........... 24
Industry Business Environment Overview.....26
Global Agribusiness Business Environment Ratings.............. 26
Global Agribusiness Business Environment Ratings......... 30
Competitive Landscape.................32
Table: Agricultural Commodity Producers & Traders ..... 32
Table: Agribusiness Suppliers ..... 33
Table: Integrated Agricultural Producers....... 34
Commodity Price Analysis............35
Grains Update ................ 35
Corn........ 35
Table: Corn ............... 35
Rice......... 36
Table: Rice................. 36
Soy .......... 37
Table: Soybean .......... 37
Wheat...... 38
Table: Wheat.............. 38
Softs Update. 39
Cocoa...... 39
Table: Cocoa ............. 39
Coffee...... 40
Table: Coffee ............. 40
Milk......... 41
Table: Milk ................ 41
Sugar ...... 42
Table: Sugar .............. 42
Downstream Supply Chain Analysis...............43
Industry Forecast Scenario – Food... 43
Food Consumption..... 43
Table: France Food Consumption Indicators -- Historical Data & Forecasts ....... 44
Prepared Food/Canned Food ...... 44
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts............. 45
Confectionery............. 45
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales -- Historical Data & Forecasts ............ 46
Private Label ............. 46
Functional Food ........ 46
Trade ...... 48
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance -- Historical Data & Forecasts .. 48
Industry Forecast Scenario – Retail.. 49
Industry Forecast Scenario – Retail.. 49
Table: France Mass Grocery Retail Market -- Sales By Format (US$bn) -- Historical Data & Forecasts.. 50
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format .......... 51
Economic Activity ........... 52
Gradual Climb Out Of Recession 52
France - GDP Contribution To Growth.......... 54
Company News Alert ..56
Entremont In the Sights Of Lactalis .. 56
Global Dairy Top 20.. 57
Company Brief ................ 58
Danone To Invest EUR2mn To Boost Production Capacity................. 58
Bonduelle In Move for France Champignon........ 58
BMI Forecast Modelling.................60
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .......... 60