Coal Industry in China, 2004

According to the State Statistical Bureau, the national raw coal production was 1.65 billion tons in 2003, increased by 15 percent compared with that of last year. The fast growing of coal production is due to the continuous and fast development of the national economy in China in the recent two years, which was also a reflection of the government's stable monetary policy and active fiscal policy.

In 2004, the government will all the same hold fast to the policy of expanding internal demands, and keep carrying out active fiscal policy and stable monetary policies. As a result, the macro economy will maintain the high growth rate of over 8 percent and the coal market will maintain the prosperous production and sales. The consumption is predicted to reach 1.63 billion tons.

The 2004 national economy is expected to run smoothly. The production of major industries that consume coals, including electric power, metallurgic, construction materials, oil and chemistry, is growing gradually, which poses a great demand for coal. The external environment of coal market is excellent. In 2004, the coal consumption in electric power, metallurgic, construction materials and chemistry industries is expected to increase. The electric power industry is estimated to consume 0.83 billion tons of coal, metallurgic industry about 0.177 billion, construction materials industry about 0.21 billion and chemistry industry about 58.21 million.

In 2003, the export of coal of China was 93.95 million tons, mainly to South Korean, Japan and Taiwan. The export proportion of steaming coal, coking coal and blind coal was 78.17 percent, 13.98 percent and 7.84 percent respectively. Coal export is estimated to decrease in 2004 to 80 million tons.

In 2003, the import of coal was 11.03 million tons, mainly from Australia, Vietnam, and Indonesia. The major coal products imported were thermal coal, coking coal and blind coal, with the proportion of 43.94 percent, 23.62 percent and 30.94 percent. Coal import is estimated to decrease in 2004.

The growth rate of national production of raw coal will keep at about 13 percent in 2004, with a total production of about 1.8 billion tons, which will on the whole satisfy the market demands. The short supply of power coal will push the market price up, which will form a pressure on the electricity price. As a result, the electricity price will probably go up too. The price of coking coal in domestic market will continue to go up in the first six months, and may fall from July, but the possibility of big fall is very small. The coke resource is becoming rare and the price will probably go up high.