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During the five years from 2001 to 2005, viewing of Free-To-Air (FTA) television fell 11%, while overall TV viewing increased 8.5%, mainly driven by the rise of pay TV. The FTA networks are expected to see intense competition for viewers and advertising in 2006 and beyond, which will impact on their cost margins as they will be forced to put more money into programming and marketing. Despite strong revenue growth in 2005 amongst pay TV providers, it is likely to taper off moving into 2007 as there is unlikely to be sufficient growth in new subscribers to fuel further growth. However, from 2006/2007 onwards, the cost structure of the industry will become more sustainable and the industry will become more profitable. This report provides key statistics and analyses in the areas of FTA television, pay TV and radio.

Free-to-Air TV

2005 and early 2006 saw the slowing demand for TV advertising and a dramatic jump in Seven Network’s audience share. This has been coupled with a steady decline in the number of people watching FTA TV at the expense of the rise of pay TV. Viewing audiences are also becoming increasingly fragmented.
The growth of the TV ad market has been weakening with an increase of around 4% likely in 2006, which would be down from 6% in 2005 and 11% in 2004.
Marketing and media buyers are increasingly turning to alternative media, such as through Internet and mobile channels, in order to reach consumers.

Digital TV

Digital FTA has been held up in a vicious cycle since it was launched in 2001. Available digital content has been nowhere near sufficient to help drive sales of digital receivers. This low penetration of digital receivers in turn has not been sufficient to encourage broadcasters to develop digital content.
By the end of 2005, penetration of digital TVs (digital receivers or digital integrated TVs) was only 1.3 million, which still classifies digital TV as a niche medium.

Pay TV

With Foxtel’s introduction of digital pay TV in early 2004, the industry only saw modest growth through 2004 and 2005.
By 2005 penetration had only reached 23% and we don’t expect penetration to reach more than 25% in 2006.
However, consumer spending increased in 2005 due to greater subscriber numbers and up-selling of subscribers to more expensive digital tiers. The ability to up-sell subscribers to premium packages has been a key driver of pay TV revenue growth.

Radio

Although its advertising base is growing, the radio market is losing share to other media sectors such as TV.
The declining power of FM radio is expected to be a key trend during 2006 and beyond. FM stations will be in danger of becoming less relevant to the youth market, as teenagers will increasingly turn to alternate new media channels such as the Internet for their music.
The frustratingly prolonged rollout of digital radio in Australia continues. In early 2006 the government announced that legislation for digital radio would take a further two to three years to implement.

1. BROADCASTING AND PAY TV – OVERVIEW AND ANALYSIS – 2006
1.1 Free-to-Air TV
1.1.1 Market overview
1.1.2 Market analysis
1.1.3 Market trends and statistics
1.2 Digital TV
1.2.1 Market trends and statistics
1.2.2 Government’s review on media reform
1.2.3 Analysis of government review on media reforms
1.3 Pay TV
1.3.1 Subscriber statistics and revenue overview
1.3.2 Market analysis
1.3.3 Regulatory overview
1.4 Radio
1.4.1 Market trends
1.4.2 Market competition
1.4.3 Digital radio – current developments
2. FREE-TO-AIR TV
2.1 Market overview and statistics
2.1.1 Market trends and analysis – 2006
2.1.2 Market trends and statistics – 2005
2.1.3 Historic market overview and statistics
2.1.4 Financial overviews
2.2 Broadcasters
2.2.1 Market overview
2.2.2 National broadcasters
2.2.3 Regional broadcasting
2.2.4 Community television broadcasting services
3. MEDIA REFORMS 2004 – 2006
3.1 Analysis of the Government media policies – 2006
3.1.1 Prelude 1996 - 2006
3.1.2 Media reform plans unveiled in 2005
3.1.3 Disappointing media policy options
3.1.4 Don’t by your digital TV yet
3.1.5 Digital TV policy could cost the government $1 billion
3.1.6 Australian Government an international embarrassment once more
3.2 Lack of cooperation shame on the Australian media
3.3 Minister had the right views
3.4 Media diversity
3.5 Technology might solve cross-media laws
3.6 More dynamic media market needed
3.6.1 Australia missing out on market dynamics
3.6.2 Converging media services
3.7 Customer demand driving changes
3.7.1 User experience pushing up demand
3.7.2 Plasma screens
3.7.3 DVRs
3.8 Structural changes are needed
3.8.1 Separation and integration
3.8.2 Structural separation is inevitable
4. DIGITAL TV
4.1 Market overview and statistics
4.1.1 Statistics - 2005
4.1.2 Statistics - 2004
4.1.3 Regional overview of broadcasters
4.1.4 Consumer survey of digital media in Australian homes
4.2 Policies and regulations
4.2.1 Brief history of DTT policy
4.2.2 Policy reviews
4.2.3 Policy analysis
4.2.4 Media Policies
5. INTERACTIVE TV
5.1 Market overview
5.1.1 Key issues for slow progress
5.1.2 New services and new market opportunities
5.1.3 Standards needed
5.1.4 Set-top Boxes (STBs)
5.2 Definitions
5.2.1 Interact with TV
5.2.2 Personal TV (choose and control)
5.2.3 High-speed Internet
5.3 iTV analysis
5.3.1 iTV 35 years on
5.3.2 Broadcasting vs broadband platforms
5.3.3 Permission-based digital TV advertising
5.4 Interactive advertising
5.4.1 Overview
5.4.2 Foxtel interactive TV ads
5.4.3 Analysis – digitising Foxtel
5.5 Interactive gambling
5.6 Case studies
5.6.1 Nine Network
5.6.2 ABC
5.6.3 Austar
5.6.4 Foxtel
5.6.5 Two Way TV Australia
5.6.6 Optus
5.7 Historical overview
5.7.1 Consumer demand
5.7.2 AFC funding
6. DATACASTING
6.1 Regulatory framework
6.1.1 Prohibited content
6.1.2 Permitted content
6.1.3 Datacasting licences
6.1.4 Datacasting transmitter licences
6.2 Datacasting reviews – 2001-2006
6.2.1 Year 2001-2002
6.2.2 Years 2003-2005
6.2.3 Year 2006
6.3 Launch of the first datacasting channel
6.3.1 NSW Government’s participation
6.3.2 Macquarie Digital
7. DIGITAL VIDEO RECORDERS
7.1 Introduction
7.1.1 Technical description
7.1.2 Functional overview
7.1.3 Electronic Program Guides (brief introduction)
7.1.4 Home Media Centres (brief introduction)
7.2 Free-to-Air DVRs
7.3 Pay TV DVRs
7.3.1 Foxtel’s iQ recorder
7.3.2 Other developments
7.3.3 Austar
7.4 TiVo
7.5 Sky Plus from News Corp
7.6 Digital TV and DVDs
7.7 Television advertising
7.8 Forecasts
7.9 Developments in the USA
8. PAY TV
8.1 Subscriber overview and analysis
8.1.2 Consumer penetration statistics
8.1.3 Market statistics by provider
8.1.4 Penetration analysis
8.1.5 Forecasts – market penetration of pay TV services
8.1.6 Industry trend towards broadband infrastructure
8.1.7 The trend towards triple play models
8.2 Industry revenues and analysis
8.2.1 Revenue statistics
8.2.2 ARPU statistics
8.2.3 Churn statistics
8.2.4 Piracy statistics
8.2.5 Pricing – historic overview
8.2.6 Pricing analysis
8.2.7 Pay TV advertising
8.3 Infrastructure
8.3.1 Statistics and Analyses
9. DIGITAL RADIO
9.1 Introduction
9.1.1 Current developments
9.1.2 Development path of digital radio
9.1.3 Year 2003
9.1.4 Features and benefits of digital radio
9.1.5 Current Australian developments – 2005 and 2006
9.1.6 New and alternate delivery channels
9.1.7 The United Kingdom and overseas experience
9.1.8 Technologies
9.2 Overview and statistics
9.2.1 Market update – 2006
9.2.2 Market update – 2004 and 2005
9.2.3 AM vs FM
9.2.4 Financial statistics
9.2.5 Major players
10. GLOSSARY OF ABBREVIATIONS


Exhibit 1 – Digital media reform – current rules and key proposed changes
Exhibit 2 – Commercial television licences – February 2006
Exhibit 3 – Nine Network coverage
Exhibit 4 – Community television licences – 2005
Exhibit 5 – Public television stations funding – 2003 - 2004
Exhibit 6 – The key issues still remain the same
Exhibit 7 – Media diversity
Exhibit 8 – Digital TV broadcasters by region – 2006
Exhibit 9 – Productivity Commission recommendations
Exhibit 10 – The AC3 audio example
Exhibit 11 – Possible foreign interests
Exhibit 12 – AFC funding and support programs for interactive digital media – 2002 - 2003
Exhibit 13 – ACMA register of datacasting licensees – 2006
Exhibit 14 – New media activities from pay TV operators - 2006
Exhibit 15 – R eeltime retail pricing strategy
Exhibit 16 – Pricing and its effect on penetration (our predictions made in 1994!)
Exhibit 17 – Pay TV roll-outs by state – 2006
Exhibit 18 – Timeline of music on the Internet
Exhibit 19 – Austereo national networks – 2006




Table 1 – Number of television and radio licences on issue – 2004 - 2005*
Table 2 – Digital TVs and integrated digital TV sets sold – 2003 - 2005
Table 3 – Growth rate of widescreen TVs – 2005
Table 4 – Pay TV subscribers by operator – 2003 - 2006
Table 5 – Revenue per operator – 2003 - 2006
Table 6 – Television set penetration by number of sets – 2005
Table 7 – Daily television viewing in metro market – 2001 - 2003
Table 8 – Australian commercial TV revenue and expenditure – 1992 – 2004*
Table 9 – TV broadcasting revenue and expenditure growth – 1996 – 2004*
Table 10 – Commercial TV revenues by broadcaster – 1998 – 2004*
Table 11 – Commercial TV broadcasters’ revenues as share of total – 1998 – 2004*
Table 12 – Broadcasting licence fees collected by the ACMA – 1997 – 2004*
Table 13 – Rebates claimed under the Regional Equalisation Plan – 1998 – 2004*
Table 14 – Commercial TV advertising revenue – 2000 – 2003*
Table 15 – Program expenditure, commercial broadcasters – 2001 – 2003*
Table 16 – Number of television and radio licences* on issue – 2004 - 2005
Table 17 – Number of television licences on issue (historical) * – 1999; 2001 - 2004
Table 18 – ABC operating revenue and cost of services – 2003 - 2005
Table 19 – ABC revenue (historical) – 1998 - 2004
Table 20 – Nine Network revenue and annual change – 2003 - 2005
Table 21 – Seven Network revenue and annual change – 1999 - 2005
Table 22 – Network TEN revenue and annual change – 1995 - 2005
Table 23 – Digital TV adoption by number of devices – 2005
Table 24 – Digital TVs and integrated digital TV sets sold – 2003 - 2005
Table 25 – Widescreen TV sales – 2004 - 2006
Table 26 – Growth rate of widescreen TVs – 2005
Table 27 – Number of digital TV* households – 2001 - 2006
Table 28 – Household penetration of digital TVs* – 2005
Table 29 – Percentage of homes with Digital TV* sets – 2005
Table 30 – TV sets in Australian households by type of set – September 2005
Table 31 – Percentage of households with FTA or pay TV – 2005
Table 32 – Household penetration of digital media – 2005
Table 33 – Type of television set in use – 2005
Table 34 – Top nine most satisfying features of digital FTA TV – 2005
Table 35 – Segmentation of households according to interest in adopting digital FTA TV – 2005
Table 36 – Penetration of pay TV services by access device – 2005
Table 37 – FTA TV adoption by device – June 2005
Table 38 – Penetration of pay TV services by access device – 2005
Table 39 – Penetration of DVD players by type of device – 2005
Table 40 – EGP developments based on current DVRs
Table 41 – EGP developments based on DVR pricing
Table 42 – Pay TV subscribers by operator – 1995 - 2006
Table 43 – Foxtel subscribers (includes Optus subscribers) – 2002 - 2006
Table 44 – Foxtel direct subscribers (excludes Optus subscribers) – 2005
Table 45 – Digital pay TV subscribers – 2004 - 2005
Table 46 – Pay TV household penetration – 1997 - 2006
Table 47 – Pay TV HH penetration and number of subscription TV HHs – 2000 - 2005
Table 48 – Pay TV audience growth by age group – 2004 - 2005
Table 49 – Pay TV HH penetration in Australia vs overseas countries – 2005
Table 50 – Pay TV viewing as a percent of total TV viewing – 1998 - 2006
Table 51 – Penetration of pay TV services by access device – 2005
Table 52 – Market share by provider – metropolitan homes in Australia – 2004 - 2005
Table 53 – Market share by provider in pay TV homes – 2004 - 2005
Table 54 – Pay TV household penetration forecasts – 2005 - 2010
Table 55 – Pay TV household penetration forecasts – 2005 -2010
Table 56 – Revenue per operator and change per annum – 1997 - 2006
Table 57 – Revenue per operator – 1997 - 2009
Table 58 – Pay TV consumer spending and forecasts – 2000 - 2009
Table 59 – Net losses pay TV industry – 1996 - 2007
Table 60 – ARPU levels - 1999 - 2006
Table 61 – Pay TV churn rates – 1996 - 2006
Table 62 – Pay TV digital cost comparison – March 2006
Table 63 – Pay TV advertising revenue and forecasts – 2000 - 2009
Table 64 – Pay TV roll-out statistics (homes passed) – 1996 - 1998; 2002; 2004 - 2005
Table 65 – Australian commercial radio financial results – 1992 - 2004