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Introduction

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Shire in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.


Reasons to Purchase

*Analysis of Shire's corporate strategy, marketed portfolio, pipeline potential and financial position in 2005 and to 2011

*Evaluate the company's prospects of maintaining growth following the approaching genericization of its current key product, Adderall XR

*See how Shire's focus on specialist therapy areas and the company's acquisition of Transkaryotic Therapies will affect its long-term growth prospects

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Key findings 4
Historical and forecast ethical sales performance 5
Therapeutic strategy 6
Launch and expiry outlook 8
Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies 10
Externalization strategy 11
Geographic strategy 12
Molecule type strategy 12
SWOT analysis 13
Strengths 13
Weaknesses 15
Opportunities 16
Threats 17
CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY 28
Key findings 28
Background 29
Key corporate developments 29
M&A history 30
Acquisition of Imperial Pharmaceutical Services 30
Acquisition of Phamavene 31
Acquisition of Richwood 31
Merger with Roberts 31
Acquisition of Fuisz Technologies' EU susidiaries 31
Acquisition of Biochem Pharma 31
Divestment of OTC products 32
Divestment of Shire Biologics 32
Transkaryotic Therapies 32
Current corporate structure 33
Shire Human Genetic Therapies (Shire HGT), 33
Current management team 34
CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 35
Key findings 35
Introduction 36
Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2002-05 36
Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set 37
Product analysis, 2002-05 39
Growth drivers 39
Adderall XR 39
Fosrenol 40
Pentasa 40
Growth resistors 41
Adderall 41
Proamatine 41
Agrylin/Xagrid 41
Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2002-05 42
Operating revenue/cost analysis 42
Operating cost ratio analysis 44
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE 47
Key findings 47
Introduction 48
Revenue and growth rate, 2005-11 48
Product analysis, 2005-11 49
ADHD-life after Adderall XR 52
Several smaller products spread the dependence away from ADHD 53
Growth resistors 54
Adderall XR is the greatest drag on growth 54
Aside from Adderall XR, there are few signifiant growth resistors 54
Growth drivers 54
The success of NRP104 is critical for Shire's future growth 54
Daytrana is expected to drive sales growth behind NRP104 55
Elaprase 55
Therapy area analysis, 2005-11 57
CNS 59
NRP104 is key to Shire's replacement of Adderall XR sales 60
Daytrana provides robust support in the CNS franchise 60
'Other' therapy areas 61
The acquisition of TKT allows expansion into new specialist markets 61
Elaprase faces no competitors in a limited but valuable market 61
Therapy area focus 62
Launches and expiries analysis, 2005-11 64
Launch portfolio 65
Shire's new ADHD treatments target unmet needs 66
Mesavance is expected to continue Shire's history of successful reformulation 67
Entry into new therapy areas diversifies Shire's product offering 67
Product launches are expected to maintain top-line growth over the forecast period 68
Core portfolio 69
Expiry portfolio 71
Adderall XR dominates Shire's 'expiry' portfolio 71
Loss of royalties has a greater impact than product sales 72
Despite generic erosion in the US, Agrylin has market exclusivity to 2015 in Europe 72
Launch/core/expiry configuration 73
Externalization analysis, 2005-11 76
Geographic analysis, 2005-11 81
Molecule type analysis, 2005-11 85
CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 89
Key findings 89
Overview 90
CNS 91
Adderall XR 91
Overview 91
Sales forecast 92
Newsflow 92
Competitive landscape 94
Future market assessment 97
Daytrana 100
Overview 100
Sales forecast 101
Newsflow 101
Competitive landscape 102
Future market assessment 103
NRP104 105
Overview 105
Sales forecast 106
Newsflow 106
Competitive landscape 107
Future market assessment 109
Connexyn 112
Overview 112
Sales forecast 113
Newsflow 113
Competitive landscape 114
Future market assessment 115
Hematology 117
Dynepo 117
Overview 117
Sales forecast 118
Newsflow 119
Competitive landscape 119
Future potential 121
AIID 124
Mesavance 124
Overview 124
Sales forecast 125
Newsflow 126
Competitive landscape 126
Future market assessment 127
Infectious disease 131
3TC franchise 131
Overview 131
Sales forecast 132
Newsflow 132
Competitive landscape 133
Future market assessment 134
Other 135
Elaprase 135
Overview 135
Sales forecast 136
Newsflow 136
Competitive landscape 137
Future market assessment 137
R&D pipeline 139
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 140
IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation 140
References 143
Abbreviations 144
Exchange rates 145
List of Tables
Table 1: Shire's senior management 34
Table 2: Peer set overview 37
Table 3: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-05 42
Table 4: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-05 44
Table 5: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 49
Table 6: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 57
Table 7: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 65
Table 8: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 69
Table 9: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 71
Table 10: Externally sourced portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11 76
Table 11: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 85
Table 12: Key products overview 90
Table 13: Adderall XR: overview 91
Table 14: Adderall XR: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 92
Table 15: Adderall XR: newsflow 92
Table 16: US sales of leading ADHD treatments (as a % of $ market share), 2002-05 95
Table 17: Daytrana: overview 100
Table 18: Daytrana: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 101
Table 19: Daytrana: newsflow 101
Table 20: NRP104: overview 105
Table 21: NRP104: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 106
Table 22: NRP104: newsflow 106
Table 23: Connexyn: overview 112
Table 24: Connexyn: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 113
Table 25: Connexyn: newsflow 113
Table 26: Dynepo: overview 117
Table 27: Dynepo: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 118
Table 28: Dynepo: newsflow 119
Table 29: Mesavance: overview 124
Table 30: Mesavance: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 125
Table 31: Mesavance: newsflow 126
Table 32: Key salicylate class treatments used to treat ulcerative colitis 127
Table 33: US and M5EU prescription of Asacol and Pentasa by indication, 2003-05 129
Table 34: 3TC franchise: overview 131
Table 35: 3TC franchise: revenue forecast ($m), 2005-11 132
Table 36: 3TC franchise: newsflow 132
Table 37: Elaprase: overview 135
Table 38: Elaprase: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 136
Table 39: Elaprase: newsflow 136
Table 40: Shire's R&D pipeline (Phase II to registration) 139
Table 41: Exchange rates, 2005 145
List of Figures
Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), Shire and the Mid Pharma peer set 5
Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Mid Pharma peer set (%), 2005 6
Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), Shire 8
Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), peer set 9
Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2005 10
Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2011 11
Figure 7: SWOT analysis of Shire 13
Figure 8: M&A/divestment history 30
Figure 9: Current corporate structure 33
Figure 10: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2002-05 36
Figure 11: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2002-05 38
Figure 12: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2002-05 39
Figure 13: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-05 43
Figure 14: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-05 45
Figure 15: Operating cost ratio vs. peer set, 2002-05 46
Figure 16: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2005-11 48
Figure 17: Top five products by sales ($m), 2005 51
Figure 18: Top five products by sales ($m), 2011 52
Figure 19: Growth drivers and resistors by product ($m), 2005-11 53
Figure 20: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2005-11 56
Figure 21: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2005-11 58
Figure 22: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area (%), 2005-11 59
Figure 23: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2005-11 62
Figure 24: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2005 63
Figure 25: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2011 64
Figure 26: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2005-11 68
Figure 27: Core products sales growth ($m), 2005-11 70
Figure 28: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2005-11 72
Figure 29: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2005-11 73
Figure 30: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), Shire 74
Figure 31: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), peer set 75
Figure 32: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2005-11 77
Figure 33: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2005-11 78
Figure 34: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 79
Figure 35: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011 80
Figure 36: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2005-11 81
Figure 37: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2005-11 82
Figure 38: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 83
Figure 39: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011 84
Figure 40: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2005-11 86
Figure 41: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 87
Figure 42: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011 88
Figure 43: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2005 141
Figure 44: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2005-11 142