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Introduction

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Recordati in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.


Reasons to Purchase

*Benchmark Recordati's performance against key rivals in the ethical pharmaceutical sector

*See how the company will give new life to its internally developed and strategically important Lercadip franchise through the launch of Zanipress

*Assess the prospects of Recordati's largely in-licensed but well-populated product portfolio

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Key findings 4
Historical and forecast ethical sales performance 5
Therapeutic strategy 6
Launch and expiry outlook 9
Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies 11
Externalization strategy 12
Geographic strategy 13
Molecule type strategy 13
SWOT analysis 14
Strengths 14
Weaknesses 15
Opportunities 16
Threat 16
CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY 28
Key findings 28
Background 29
Key corporate developments 29
M&A history 31
Current corporate structure 33
Current management team 35
CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 36
Key findings 36
Introduction 37
Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2002-05 37
Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set 38
Product analysis, 2002-05 40
Growth drivers 40
Lercadip 40
Entact 41
Claversal 41
Peptzol 41
Growth resistors 42
Elopram 42
Toradol 42
Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2002-05 43
Operating revenue/cost analysis 45
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE 49
Key findings 49
Introduction 50
Revenue and growth rate, 2005-11 50
Product analysis, 2005-11 52
Growth drivers 56
Pitavastatin 56
Zanipress 57
Entact 57
Alergoliber 57
Tramadol 57
Growth resistors 58
Peptazol 58
Toradol 58
Elopram 58
Therapy area analysis, 2005-11 61
Cardiovascular 64
CNS 64
AIID 65
Gastrointestinal 65
Therapy area focus 66
Launches and expiries analysis, 2005-11 69
Launch portfolio 70
Core portfolio 72
Expiry portfolio 74
Launch/core/expiry configuration 77
Externalization analysis, 2005-11 79
Geographic analysis, 2005-11 86
Molecule type analysis, 2005-11 91
CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 96
Key findings 96
Overview 97
Cardiovascular 98
Lercadip 98
Overview 98
Sales forecast 99
Newsflow 99
Competitive landscape 100
Zanipress 105
Overview 105
Sales forecast 106
Newsflow 106
Competitive landscape 106
Pitavastatin 108
Overview 108
Sales forecast 109
Newsflow 109
Competitive landscape 109
CNS 113
Elopram/Entact 113
Overview 113
Sales forecast 115
Newsflow 116
Competitive landscape 116
Toradol 120
Overview 120
Sales forecast 121
Newsflow 121
Competitive landscape 121
Tramadol 124
Overview 124
Sales forecast 125
Newsflow 125
Competitive landscape 125
Gastrointestinal 127
Peptazol 127
Overview 127
Sales forecast 128
Newsflow 128
Competitive landscape 128
Cidine 131
Overview 131
Sales forecast 132
Newsflow 132
Competitive landscape 132
Infectious disease 134
Octegra 134
Overview 134
Sales forecast 135
Newsflow 135
Competitive landscape 135
Isocef 137
Overview 137
Sales forecast 138
Newsflow 138
Competitive landscape 138
Prulifloxacin 140
Overview 140
Sales forecast 141
Newsflow 141
Competitive landscape 141
Respiratory 143
Hexa line 143
Overview 143
Sales forecast 144
Newsflow 144
Competitive landscape 144
Urology 146
Silodosin 146
Overview 146
Sales forecast 147
Newsflow 147
Competitive landscape 147
AIID 149
Alergoliber 149
Overview 149
Sales forecast 150
Newsflow 150
Competitive landscape 150
R&D pipeline 152
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 153
IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation 153
References 156
Abbreviations 156
Exchange rates 157
List of Tables
Table 1: Recordati Corporate Executive Committee 35
Table 2: Peer set overview 38
Table 3: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-05 43
Table 4: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-05 46
Table 5: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 52
Table 6: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 61
Table 7: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 70
Table 8: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 72
Table 9: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 74
Table 10: Externally developed portfolio sales ($m), 2005-11 80
Table 11: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 91
Table 12: Key products overview 97
Table 13: Lercadip: overview 98
Table 14: Lercadip: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 99
Table 15: Lercadip: newsflow 99
Table 16: Zanipress: overview 105
Table 17: Zanipress: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 106
Table 18: Zanipress: newsflow 106
Table 19: Pitavastatin: overview 108
Table 20: Pitavastatin: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 109
Table 21: Pitavastatin: newsflow 109
Table 22: Entact: overview 113
Table 23: Elopram: overview 114
Table 24: Entact: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 115
Table 25: Elopram: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 115
Table 26: Entact: newsflow 116
Table 27: Elopram: newsflow 116
Table 28: Toradol: overview 120
Table 29: Toradol: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 121
Table 30: Toradol: newsflow 121
Table 31: Tramadol: overview 124
Table 32: Tramadol: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 125
Table 33: Tramadol: newsflow 125
Table 34: Peptazol: overview 127
Table 35: Peptazol: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 128
Table 36: Peptazol: newsflow 128
Table 37: Cidine: overview 131
Table 38: Cidine: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 132
Table 39: Cidine: newsflow 132
Table 40: Octegra: overview 134
Table 41: Octegra: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 135
Table 42: Octegra: newsflow 135
Table 43: Isocef: overview 137
Table 44: Isocef: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 138
Table 45: Isocef: newsflow 138
Table 46: Prulifloxacin: overview 140
Table 47: Prulifloxacin: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 141
Table 48: Prulifloxacin: newsflow 141
Table 49: Hexa line: overview 143
Table 50: Hexa line: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 144
Table 51: Hexa line: newsflow 144
Table 52: Silodosin: overview 146
Table 53: Silodosin: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 147
Table 54: Silodosin: newsflow 147
Table 55: Alergoliber: overview 149
Table 56: Alergoliber: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 150
Table 57: Alergoliber: newsflow 150
Table 58: Recordati's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 152
Table 59: Exchange rates, 2005 157
List of Figures
Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), Recordati and Mid Pharma peer set 5
Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Mid Pharma peer set (%), 2005 7
Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), Recordati 9
Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), peer set 10
Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2005 11
Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2011 12
Figure 7: SWOT analysis of Recordati 14
Figure 8: M&A/divestment history 32
Figure 9: Current corporate structure 34
Figure 10: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2002-05 37
Figure 11: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2002-05 39
Figure 12: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2002-05 40
Figure 13: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-05 45
Figure 14: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-05 47
Figure 15: Operating cost ratio vs. peer set, 2002-05 48
Figure 16: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2005-11 50
Figure 17: Top five products by sales ($m), 2005 54
Figure 18: Top five products by sales ($m), 2011 55
Figure 19: Growth drivers and resistors by product, 2005-11 56
Figure 20: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2005-11 59
Figure 21: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2005-11 62
Figure 22: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area (%), 2005-11 64
Figure 23: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2005-11 66
Figure 24: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2005 67
Figure 25: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2011 68
Figure 26: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2005-11 71
Figure 27: Core products sales growth ($m), 2005-11 73
Figure 28: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2005-11 76
Figure 29: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2005-11 77
Figure 30: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), Recordati 78
Figure 31: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), peer set 79
Figure 32: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2005-11 81
Figure 33: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2005-11 83
Figure 34: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 84
Figure 35: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011 85
Figure 36: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2005-11 86
Figure 37: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2005-11 87
Figure 38: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 88
Figure 39: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011 89
Figure 40: Recordati 6MM revenues split by country ($m), 2005 90
Figure 41: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2005-11 92
Figure 42: Growth drivers and resistors by molecule type, sales ($m), 2005-11 93
Figure 43: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 94
Figure 44: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011 95
Figure 45: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2005 154
Figure 46: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2005-11 155