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Introduction

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Merck & Co. in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.


Reasons to Purchase

*Benchmark Merck & Co.'s performance against key rivals in the ethical pharmaceutical sector

*Assess the level of generic exposure to Merck & Co.'s product portfolio out to 2011, prompted by the mid-2006 loss of US patent protection for Zocor

*Analyze how Merck will increase its externalization to enhance its late-stage pipeline and mitigate a lack of in-house development productivity

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4
Key findings 4
Historical and forecast ethical sales performance 5
Therapeutic strategy 6
Launch and expiry outlook 9
Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies 11
Externalization strategy 11
Geographic strategy 12
Molecule type strategy 13
SWOT analysis 14
Strengths 15
Weaknesses 16
Opportunities 17
Threats 18
CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY 29
Key findings 29
Background 30
Key corporate developments 30
Merck & Co. global restructuring plan: December 2005 - highlights 31
M&A history 32
Divestments 32
Acquisitions 32
GlycoFi 33
Abmaxis 33
Current management team 34
CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 35
Key findings 35
Introduction 36
Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2002-05 36
Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set 37
Product analysis, 2002-05 39
Growth drivers 39
Singulair 39
Fosamax 40
Other infectious diseases 40
Growth resistors 40
Vioxx 40
Other cardiovascular 41
Zocor 41
Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2002-05 42
Operating revenue/cost analysis 44
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE 46
Key findings 46
Introduction 47
Revenue and growth rate, 2005-11 47
Product analysis, 2005-11 49
Growth drivers 54
Vytorin 54
Singulair 55
Gardasil 55
Januvia 56
Zetia 56
Growth resistors 56
Zocor 57
Fosamax 58
Cozaar 58
Proscar 58
Therapy area analysis, 2005-11 60
Respiratory 63
Infectious disease 64
Oncology 64
Diabetes & endocrinology 64
Cardiovascular 65
Women's health 65
Therapy area focus 66
Launches and expiries analysis, 2005-11 71
Launch portfolio 71
Core portfolio 73
Expiry portfolio 75
Launch/core/expiry configuration 77
Externalization analysis, 2005-11 81
Geographic analysis, 2005-11 87
Molecule type analysis, 2005-11 91
CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 97
Key findings 97
Overview 98
Cardiovascular 99
Zetia/Vytorin 99
Overview 99
Sales forecast 99
Newsflow 101
Profile 101
Competitive landscape 102
Cozaar/Hyzaar 105
Overview 105
Sales forecast 106
Newsflow 107
Profile 107
Competitive landscape 107
Zocor 110
Overview 110
Sales forecast 111
Newsflow 111
Profile 111
Competitive landscape 112
Respiratory 115
Singulair 115
Overview 115
Sales forecast 116
Newsflow 116
Profile 116
Competitive landscape 117
Gardasil 119
Overview 119
Sales forecast 120
Newsflow 121
Profile 121
Competitive landscape 122
Januvia 124
Overview 124
Sales forecast 125
Newsflow 125
Profile 126
Competitive landscape 126
Fosamax 128
Overview 128
Sales forecast 129
Newsflow 130
Profile 130
Competitive landscape 131
R&D pipeline 133
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 135
IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation 135
Abbreviations 137
List of Tables
Table 1: Merck & Co. Corporate Executive Committee 34
Table 2: Peer set overview 37
Table 3: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-05 42
Table 4: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-05 44
Table 5: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 49
Table 6: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 60
Table 7: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 71
Table 8: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 73
Table 9: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 75
Table 10: Externally developed portfolio, sales ($m), 2005-11 81
Table 11: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2005-11 91
Table 12: Key products overview 98
Table 13: Zetia/Vytorin: overview 99
Table 14: Zetia: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 100
Table 15: Vytorin: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 100
Table 16: Zetia/Vytorin: news flow 101
Table 17: Cozaar/Hyzaar: overview 105
Table 18: Cozaar: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 106
Table 19: Hyzaar: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 106
Table 20: Cozaar/Hyzaar: news flow 107
Table 21: Zocor: overview 110
Table 22: Zocor: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 111
Table 23: Zocor: news flow 111
Table 24: Singulair: overview 115
Table 25: Singulair: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 116
Table 26: Singulair: news flow 116
Table 27: Gardasil : overview 119
Table 28: Gardasil : sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 120
Table 29: Gardasil: news flow 121
Table 30: Januvia : overview 124
Table 31: Januvia : sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 125
Table 32: Januvia: news flow 125
Table 33: Fosamax: overview 128
Table 34: Fosamax: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 129
Table 35: Fosamax: news flow 130
Table 36: Merck & Co.'s R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 133
List of Figures
Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), Merck & Co. and Big Pharma peer set 5
Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Big Pharma peer set (%), 2005 8
Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), Merck & Co. 9
Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), peer set 10
Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2005 11
Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2011 12
Figure 7: SWOT analysis of Merck & Co. 14
Figure 8: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2002-05 36
Figure 9: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2002-05 38
Figure 10: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2002-05 39
Figure 11: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2002-05 43
Figure 12: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2002-05 44
Figure 13: Operating cost ratio vs. peer set, 2002-05 45
Figure 14: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2005-11 48
Figure 15: Top five products by sales ($m), 2005 51
Figure 16: Top five products by sales ($m), 2011 53
Figure 17: Growth drivers and resistors by product, 2005-11 54
Figure 18: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2005-11 59
Figure 19: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2005-11 62
Figure 20: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area (%), 2005-11 63
Figure 21: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2005-11 66
Figure 22: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2005 68
Figure 23: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2011 70
Figure 24: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2005-11 72
Figure 25: Core products sales growth ($m), 2005-11 74
Figure 26: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2005-11 76
Figure 27: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2005-11 77
Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), Merck & Co. 78
Figure 28: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2005-11 (sales as % of 2005 sales), peer set 80
Figure 29: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2005-11 82
Figure 30: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2005-11 84
Figure 31: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 85
Figure 32: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011 86
Figure 33: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2005-11 87
Figure 34: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2005-11 88
Figure 35: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 89
Figure 36: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011 90
Figure 37: Growth drivers and resistors by molecule type, sales ($m), 2005-11 92
Figure 38: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2005-11 94
Figure 39: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2005 95
Figure 40: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2011 96
Figure 41: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2005 136
Figure 42: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2005-11 137