The British market for scheduled bus and coach services, including concessionary fare reimbursement, but excluding other forms of government support, grew by 5% in real terms in 2005/2006, to reach £5.48bn. At the same time, bus patronage is increasing overall, but it is being driven by growth in London, Scotland and Wales. Bus patronage in England outside London declined between 2000/2001 and 2005/2006.

Including public transport support and bus operators service grants the total market was worth £6.86bn in 2005/2006. Over the 2000/2001 to 2005/2006 period, the level of government support for local services increased by 49.9%, while passenger receipts (excluding concessionary fare reimbursement) increased by 25.7% for local services. Despite the growing level of government subsidy, the UK remains relatively low compared with other EU countries.

The increase in government support is set against a strategic framework set up in the Government's 10-year plan for Transport for 2000 to 2010. One of the target aims of the plan was to increase bus patronage outside London by 10% over the period. The attainment of the target is through the culmination of local transport plans, quality partnerships and service development initiatives, particularly the Kickstart initiative.

The framework and methods by which improvements to local bus services are taking place are being locally driven, but they are also enveloped in an agreement with the bus industry to improve services. The agreement through the Confederation of Passenger Transport requires members to run 99.5% of their scheduled mileage except in circumstances where it is beyond their control, achieve and maintain an average fleet age of 8 years, ensure that 50% of the fleet is accessible by 2010/2011, and the level of public satisfaction with passenger information at bus stops improves.

In 2005/2006, 99% of scheduled mileage was undertaken, the average age of the fleet was 7.8 years, accessibility had reached 50% and passenger satisfaction with bus stop information was 69% compared with 66% the previous year. The improvements to bus services have been coincident with the growth in local bus service patronage overall but patronage outside London in England and non-local bus patronage has declined.

Against the background of slow and steady improvement to local bus patronage overall the industry has been relatively stable. The high level of concentration among five major operators that formed in the 1990s has been maintained. The top five operators account for 72% of the market in 2006, up from 69% in 2002, as a result of acquisition and organic growth. The coach market is dominated by National Express.

The extension of national concessionary fares to England in 2008 and the momentum behind Kickstart schemes should continue to ensure that the local bus service market grows, but the long-term forecast for non-local coaches is stable at best.

Executive Summary

1. Market Definition

* REPORT COVERAGE
* MARKET SECTORS
* MARKET TRENDS
* Non-Local Services Decline As Local Services Grow
* Table 1: Bus and Coach Operators' Passenger Receipts by Type of Service at Constant 2005/2006 Prices (£m and %), 2001/2002-2005/2006
* Real Growth In Local Bus Service Revenues
* Table 2: Passenger Transport Price Indices at Current and Constant Prices (index 1995=100), 2001/2002-2005/2006
* Increase in Passenger Numbers on Local Bus Services
* Table 3: Local Bus Services — Vehicle Kilometres and Passenger Numbers (million and index 1990/1991=100), 1990/1991-2005/2006
* ECONOMIC TREN-DS
* Population
* Table 4: UK Resident Population Estimates by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2001-2005
* Gross Domestic Product
* Table 5: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and Annual Prices (£m), 2001-2005
* Inflation
* Table 6: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2001-2005
* Unemployment
* Table 7: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2001-2005
* Household Disposable Income
* Table 8: UK Household Disposable Income Per Capita (£), 2001-2005
* MARKET POSITION
* The UK
* Table 9: Use of Passenger Transport by Mode (billion passenger kilometres and %), 1993-2005
* Overseas
* Table 10: Comparison of Bus and Coach Use in Selected Countries (billion passenger kilometres), 1995, 2000 and 2003
* Table 11: Comparison of Bus and Coach Use in Selected Countries (billion passenger kilometres, million and kilometres per person), 2003

2. Market Size

* THE TOTAL MARKET
* Table 12: The Total Bus and Coach Services Market† in Great Britain by Value at Current Prices and Constant 2005/2006 Prices (£m), 2001/2002-2005/2006
* Figure 1: The Total Bus and Coach Services Market† in Great Britain by Value at Current Prices (£m), 2001/2002-2005/2006
* Figure 2: The Total Bus and Coach Services Market† in Great Britain by Value at Constant 2005/2006 Prices (£m), 2001/2002-2005/2006
* LOCAL SERVICES
* By Value
* Passenger Receipts by Area at Current Prices
* Table 13: Local Bus Services — Passenger Receipts by Area at Current Prices (£m), 2001/2002-2005/2006
* Passenger Receipts by Area at Constant 2004/2005 Prices
* Table 14: Local Bus Services — Passenger Receipts by Area at Constant 2004/2005 Prices (£m), 2000/2001-2005/2006
* Government Support
* Table 15: Local Bus Services — Government Support at Current Prices (£m), 2001/2002-2005/2006
* Table 16: Local Bus Services — Breakdown of Operators' Income (%), 2001/2002-2005/2006
* Operating Costs by Area
* Table 17: Local Bus Services — Operating Costs by Area at Constant 2004/2005 Prices (pence per vehicle kilometre and pence per passenger journey), 2000/2001-2004/2005
* Fare Indices by Area
* Table 18: Local Bus Services — Fare Indices by Area at Constant Prices (index 1995=100), 2001/2006
* By Volume
* Number of Passengers Carried by Area
* Table 19: Local Bus Services — Number of Passengers Carried by Area (million and %), 2001/2002-2005/2006
* Figure 3: Local Bus Services — Number of Passengers Carried by Area (%), 2006
* Table 20: Local Bus Services — Vehicle Kilometres (million) by Area, 2001/2002-2005/2006
* Vehicle Kilometres — Commercial and Subsidised Services
* Table 21: Local Bus Services — Commercial and Subsidised Services Outside London (million vehicle kilometres and %), 2001/2002-2005/2006
* NON-LOCAL SERVICES
* By Value
* Table 22: Non-Local Bus Services — Passenger Receipts at Constant 2005/2006 Prices (£m), 2001/2002-2005/2006
* By Volume
* Table 23: Non-Local Bus Services — Passenger Kilometres (billion and %), 2000/2001-2005/2006
* Table 24: Non-Local Bus Services — Vehicle Kilometres (million and %), 2001/2002-2005/2006

3. Industry Background

* HISTORICAL BACKGROUND
* NUMBER OF COMPANIES
* EMPLOYMENT
* Number of Employees by Type of Job
* Table 25: Number of Bus and Coach Staff by Type of Job (000), 1994/1995-2005/2006
* Average Wages
* At Current Prices
* Table 26: Average Weekly Wages at Current Prices and Hours in the Bus and Coach Industry and All Occupations (£ and hours), 1994-2005
* At Constant 2002 Prices
* Table 27: Average Weekly Wages in the Bus and Coach Industry at Constant 2005 Prices (£), 1994-2005
* DISTRIBUTION
* HOW ROBUST IS THE MARKET?
* LEGISLATION
* Transport Act 2000
* Disability Discrimination Act 2005
* Greater London Authority Act 1999
* KEY TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
* Confederation of Passenger Transport
* Coach Tourism Council

4. Competitor Analysis

* THE MARKETPLACE
* Table 28: The UK's Largest Local Bus Operators by Market Share (%), 2005
* Market Leaders
* FirstGroup PLC
* Company Structure
* Current and Future Developments
* Financial Results
* Stagecoach Group PLC
* Company Structure
* Current and Future Developments
* Financial Results
* Arriva PLC
* Company Structure
* Current and Future Developments
* Financial Results
* The Go-Ahead Group PLC
* Company Structure
* Current and Future Developments
* Financial Results
* National Express Group PLC
* Company Structure
* Current and Future Developments
* Financial Results
* OUTSIDE SUPPLIERS
* Marketing Activity
* Table 29: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Bus and Coach Operators (£000), Year Ending June 2006
* Table 30: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Bus and Coach Operators (£000), Years Ending June 2002-2006

5. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats

* STRENGTHS
* WEAKNESSES
* OPPORTUNITIES
* THREATS

6. Buying Behaviour

* THE INFLUENCE OF CAR OWNERSHIP
* Table 31: Use of Local Bus Services in Relation to Household Car Ownership (% per person), 1989/1991-2005
* Table 32: Use of Local Bus Services in Relation to Household Car Ownership (stages per person per year), 1989/1991-2005
* PURPOSE OF BUS USE
* Table 33: Breakdown of Local Bus Journeys by Purpose of Journey (% of journey stages, % of mileage and average distance per year), 2005
* By Age and Sex
* Table 34: Breakdown of Local Bus Journeys by Purpose of Journey by Age and Sex (% of journey stages and % of mileage per year), 2005
* DURATION, FREQUENCY AND RECENCY
* Table 35: Duration, Frequency and Recency of Bus Use (% of adults), 2002-2006
* By Sex
* Table 36: Duration, Frequency and of Bus Use by Sex (% of adults), 2006
* By Age
* Table 37: Duration, Frequency and Recency of Bus Use by Age (% of adults), 2006
* By Social Grade
* Table 38: Duration, Frequency and Recency of Bus Use by Social Grade (% of adults), 2006

7. Current Issues

* THE 10-YEAR PLAN FOR TRANSPORT
* KICKSTART
* CONCESSIONARY FARES
* AIR QUALITY

8. The Global Market

* DEMAND FOR BUS SERVICES
* Table 39: Comparison of Bus and Coach Numbers and Use in EU Countries (000, billion passenger kilometres and 000 passenger kilometres per vehicle), 2003
* LEVEL OF SUBSIDIES
* Table 40: Proportion of Bus Operating Costs Financed by Passenger Receipts in the EU (%), 2001

9. Forecasts

* INTRODUCTION
* Economic Forecasts
* Population
* Table 41: Forecast UK Resident Population by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2006-2010
* Gross Domestic Product
* Table 42: Forecast UK Growth in Gross Domestic Product in Real Terms (%), 2006-2010
* FORECASTS 2006/2007 TO 2010/2011
* Table 43: The Forecast Total Bus and Coach Services Market† in Great Britain by Value at Current Prices (£m), 2006/2007 to 2010/2011
* Table 44: Local Bus Services — Forecast Number of Passengers Carried by Area (million and %), 2006/2007-2010/2011
* Figure 4: Local Bus Services — Forecast Number of Passengers Carried by Area (million), 2006/2007-2010/2011
* Market Growth
* Figure 5: The Forecast Total Bus and Coach Services Market† in Great Britain by Value at Current Prices (£m), 2006/2007 to 2010/2011
* Future Trends

10. Company Profiles

* Arriva Plc
* Firstgroup Plc
* The Go-ahead Group Plc
* National Express Group Plc
* Stagecoach Group Plc

11. Consumer Confidence

* METHODOLOGY
* KEY FINDINGS THIS QUARTER
* THE WILLINGNESS TO BORROW
* Confidence Rebounds
* Table A: The Average Amount Consumers Are Willing to Borrow in Order to Purchase Expensive Items at Current and Constant November 2004 Prices (£ and £bn), August 2005-2006
* Fewer Adults Wish to Borrow
* Table B: The Number of Adults Willing to Borrow in Order to Purchase Expensive Items (000 and %), August 2005-2006
* SPENDING FROM SAVINGS
* Strong Recovery in Spending from Savings
* Table C: The Average Amount Consumers Are Willing to Spend from Savings in Order to Purchase Expensive Items at Current and Constant November 2004 Prices (£ and £bn), August 2005-2006
* Savings Grow in Relative Importance
* Table D: The Average Amounts Adults Are Confident Spending to Purchase Expensive Items (£ and %), August 2005-2006

12. Further Sources

* Associations
* Government Sources
* General
* Other
* Bisnode Sources