Market Competitive Intensity: Poland

DATAMONITOR VIEW 1
CATALYST 1
SUMMARY 1
ANALYSIS 2
Introduction: Datamonitor's MCI Index offers a robust framework for measuring the development of energy Market Competitive Intensity 2
The MCI Index shows how attractive a particular market is to new entrants in terms of the competitive environment 2
The MCI assessment draws on nine underlying metrics grouped into three broad clusters: Market framework; Supplier Push; Customer Pull. 3
The MCI Index measures the development of 20 diverse European gas and power markets 3
The MCI Index assesses markets in December 2006 and on 1st July 2008 in addition to driving a market switching forecast 4
Each of the nine pillars has an assessment scale to allow for the comparison of diverse markets (see appendix for more details) 4
Two differing overall MCI scores are calculated to ensure full clarity of results 5
A simple weighted average (additive) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
A weighted multiple (multiplicative) measure shows overall competitive intensity 5
The MCI framework has a number of applications for your organization 5
Context: Poland's gas and power position remains clustered with the least competitive markets surveyed 6
Despite a 1.4 point increase over the period, Poland remains unchanged in the rankings 6
The increase in Poland's score over the period pushes it up one place in the rankings 7
Power MCI: Aside from the Retail Fragmentation metric, Poland's power scores remain weak 8
Market Framework scores will remain modest in 2008 8
Effectiveness of Regulator [2006: 3/10 2008: 5/10] 8
Ease of Third Party Access [2006: 3.3/10 2008: 5/10] 9
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2006: 2/10 2008: 5/10] 9
Low levels of retail and wholesale fragmentation drive the Supplier Push metric both currently and in July 2008 9
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2006: 4.5/10 2008: 5.5/10] 9
Retail Market Fragmentation [2006: 9/10 2008: 9/10] 9
Traded Market Maturity [2006: 2.3/10 2008: 4/10] 9
Customer Pull metrics are very much at the lower end of the scale and are likely to remain so in July 2008 9
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2006: 3/10 2008: 4/10] 9
Consumer Representation [2006: 2/10 2008: 3/10] 10
Propensity to Switch [2006: 2/10 2008: 3.5/10] 10
Residential switching is likely to remain at modest levels, though non-residential rates are likely to grow more rapidly 10
Gas MCI: Poland's Customer Pull metrics impact the overall low score 11
None of the Market Framework metrics increase their scores significantly between now and 2008 11
Effectiveness of Regulator [2006: 3/10 2008: 4/10] 11
Ease of Third Party Access [2006: 2/10 2008: 3/10] 12
Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer [2006: 5/10 2008: 5.5/10] 12
A lack of access to wholesale gas supplies constrains Poland's Supplier Push scores 12
Wholesale Market Fragmentation [2006: 1.5/10 2008: 2/10] 12
Retail Market Fragmentation [2006: 4.5/10 2008: 5.5/10] 12
Traded Market Maturity [2006: 0/10 2008: 1/10] 12
Customer Pull metrics will remain at the lower end of the scale by 2008 12
Access to Market Information and Assistance [2006: 0.5/10 2008: 1/10] 12
Consumer Representation [2006: 1.5/10 2008: 2.5/10] 13
Propensity to Switch [2006: 1/10 2008: 2/10] 13
The role played by the top three players in the market will begin to diminish by the end of the forecast period and as such will drive switching rates 13
Outlook: Opportunities in the Polish gas market lag those potentially available in the power market 14
There is a wide degree of diversity between the levels of competitive intensity in the Polish gas and power markets 14
Power scores 14
Gas scores 14
Growing environmental pressures are creating strong commercial opportunities for generators 15
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Power 15
New Market Entrant Threats, Power 15
The difficulties associated with obtaining gas are just one of the many reasons why the Polish gas market is an unattractive option for new entrants 15
New Market Entrant Opportunities, Gas 15
New Market Entrant Threats, Gas 15
MCI Scores 16
APPENDIX 19
Definitions 19
Ask the analyst 24
List of Tables
Table 1: Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 2006-08 16
Table 2: MCI Additive, Europe 2006-2008 17
Table 3: MCI Multiplicative, Europe 2006-2008 18
List of Figures
Figure 1: MCI Assessment Scale 2
Figure 2: MCI Assessment Framework 3
Figure 3: MCI Market Coverage 3
Figure 4: MCI Scales 4
Figure 5: MCI Applications 5
Figure 6: European Power Market Competitive Intensity, 2006-08 6
Figure 7: European Gas Market Competitive Intensity, 2006-08 7
Figure 8: Power Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 8
Figure 9: Switching Forecasts, Poland 2008 [Residential: 11% Non Residential:28%] 10
Figure 10: Gas Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 11
Figure 11: Switching Forecasts, Poland 2008 [Residential: 07% Non Residential:15%] 13
Figure 12: Market Competitive Intensity, Poland 14
Figure 13: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Regulator 19
Figure 14: Scale for MCI Assessment, Ease of Third Party Access 20
Figure 15: Scale for MCI Assessment, Effectiveness of Balancing and Data Transfer 20
Figure 16: Scale for MCI Assessment, Wholesale Market Fragmentation 21
Figure 17: Scale for MCI Assessment, Retail Market Fragmentation 21
Figure 18: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 22
Figure 19: Scale for MCI Assessment, Traded Market Maturity 22
Figure 20: Scale for MCI Assessment, Access to Market Information and Assistance 23
Figure 21: Scale for MCI Assessment, Consumer Representation 23
Figure 22: Scale for MCI Assessment, Propensity to Switch 24