Nuclear power remains at the forefront of the debate about fuel security, the environmental impact of reliance on fossil fuels and the long-term cost benefits of switching to renewable power sources. Beneath the emotional arguments for and against nuclear energy there are also complex cost factors which alter just how attractive nuclear power really is in the long and short term against traditional and emerging power generation technologies.

The Future of Nuclear Power is a new management report that critically evaluates the investment in nuclear power. It includes a detailed analysis of the market drivers, resistors, opportunities and risks. This new report also comprehensively examines the current and future nuclear power generation technologies, the environmental effects, cost factors, benefits and contains a survey of nuclear fuel processing and reprocessing.

Use the independent analysis in this new report to recognize future investment opportunities for growth and anticipate market threats.

Some key findings from this report...

• In terms of CO2 emission rates, nuclear power outperforms all other power generation technologies except hydropower with between 6 and 26 t/GWh of emissions. Life-cycle analysis of emissions also place it very similarly to hydropower.
• Build data shows that the cost of construction of nuclear power plants rose well above the rate of inflation between 1970 and 2000, partly because of safety and the cost of innovation. However, both France and Japan have been able to keep costs significantly lower, providing a model for future nuclear growth.
• Recent studies - and some real costs of construction - imply that the cost of building a third-generation nuclear power plant today is approximately $2,000/kW, compared to historical costs of $3,000/kW.
• Numerous studies point to nuclear power providing a lower cost of power than either coal or gas. At a 5% discount rate, for example, the cost of nuclear electricity may be half that of gas-fired generation.

This new report will provide you with...

• Detailed analysis of the capital costs of nuclear power – by technology and across countries - versus other power generation technologies.
• Investigation of the true cost of electricity from nuclear power and comparison with competing power generation technologies.
• Evaluation of the major issues surrounding provision of adequate supplies of nuclear fuel and their impact on the cost of nuclear power.
• In-depth examination of nuclear power generation technologies, including third generation designs.
• Forecast of the future of nuclear power and the key drivers and resistors of capacity growth.

Some key questions answered in this report...

• What is the likelihood of major changes in the cost of fuel over the next ten years?
• How do discount loan rates affect the cost of nuclear electricity?
• What is the impact of power generation technology on the capital cost of nuclear power?
• How will nuclear capacity grow between now and 2015?
• What are the CO2 emissions of nuclear power on a life-cycle based analysis?
• What are the main risks associated with nuclear power?

Some hot issues covered in this report...

• Nuclear risk - the Chernobyl disaster and how it still casts a long shadow over the development of future nuclear projects.
• The cost of fuel - the impact on fuel costs, as military and civilian surpluses of enriched uranium dwindle.
• Loan discount rates - and the impact of the cost of power.
• CO2 emission rates - of nuclear power and other competing technologies.
• Capacity growth – the impact on investment in nuclear and the countries that will lead new development projects.

Top 5 reasons to order this new report today

• Discover the relative costs of nuclear power and other power generation technologies.
• Recognize the levels of risk associated with nuclear energy and its role in reducing CO2 emissions.
• Examine the different types of nuclear power generation and how this drives the cost of electricity in different geographies.
• Identify the drivers and resistors of nuclear power capacity growth and future growth predictions.
• Assess which factors can have an impact on the cost of new nuclear projects.

Table of Contents
The Future of Nuclear Power
Executive Summary 8
Introduction 8
Nuclear fuel 8
Nuclear power generation technology 9
Risk and the environment 9
Nuclear economics 10
The future of nuclear power 10
Chapter 1 Introduction to nuclear power 14
Introduction 14
Nuclear development and stagnation 15
The current situation 19
Nuclear risk 21
Why build more nuclear plants 22
This report 23
Chapter 2 Nuclear fuel 26
Introduction 26
Uranium production 28
Uranium enrichment 31
Other nuclear fuels 33
Energy content of uranium 34

Chapter 3 Nuclear power generation
technology 36
Introduction 36
Controlling the nuclear reaction 37
Moderators 38
Reactor designs 39
Boiling water reactor (BWR) 40
Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) 42
Pressurized heavy water reactor (Candu reactor) 43
Gas-cooled reactors 44
RBMK reactor 45
High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) 45
Breeder reactors 46
New and advanced reactor designs 47
Third generation designs 48
ABWR 49
AP1000 49
APR1400 50
ESBWR 50
EPR 50
ACR Series 50
PBMR 51
Other third generation designs 51
Fourth generation designs 51
Hydrogen production 52
Some economic considerations 53
Chapter 4 Nuclear risk and the
environmental effects of nuclear
power 58
Introduction 58
Net Energy Analysis 59
Lifetime CO2 emission analysis 65
Nuclear risk 71
Power plant safety 71
Nuclear waste disposal 75
Nuclear proliferation 76
International terrorism 78

Chapter 5 Economics of nuclear power 82
Introduction 82
The cost of building a nuclear power plant 83
Historical construction 86
Capital cost of a new nuclear power plant 89
The cost of electricity from nuclear power plants 91
Nuclear fuel costs 96
Chapter 6 The future of nuclear power 100
Introduction 100
Economics 101
Fuel costs 105
Greenhouse emissions 106
Kyoto mechanisms 107
Energy security 108
Risks 109
Nuclear scenarios 110
Capacity erosion 110
Maintaining the status quo 110
Major capacity growth 111
Nuclear capacity growth 111

List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Global nuclear generating capacity (GW), 1960-2007 16
Figure 1.2: Global nuclear power generation (TWh), 1980-2005 19
Figure 1.3: Leading countries for nuclear generation, 2007 19
Figure 2.4: World uranium resources (1,000t), by region 27
Figure 2.5: World uranium production (tonnes of U), 2005 30
Figure 4.6: CO2 emission rates based on UIC collated data (t/GWh) 67
Figure 4.7: Life-cycle analysis-based CO2 emissions (t/GWh) 68
Figure 5.8: Cost of power from different sources as a function of discount rate ($/MWh) 92
Figure 5.9: Cost of electricity in Japan ($/MWh), 1999 94
Figure 6.10: The cost of electricity using different technologies (€/kWh) 103
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Global nuclear generating capacity (GW), 1960-2007 17
Table 1.2: Global nuclear power generation (TWh), 1980-2005 18
Table 2.3: World uranium resources (1,000t), by region 26
Table 2.4: World uranium production (tonnes of U), 2005 29
Table 2.5: World uranium enrichment capacity (1000 kg SWU/y) 32
Table 3.6: World reactors in operation by type, 2007 41
Table 3.7: Third generation reactor designs 48
Table 4.8: Life cycle energy efficiencies of different technologies 61
Table 4.9: Energy payback ratios, by power generation technology 62
Table 4.10: Input percentage of lifetime output for nuclear fission plants with fuel from different
sources 63
Table 4.11: Greenhouse gas emission rates for different technologies (Tonnes of CO2
equivalent/GWh), US 66
Table 4.12: CO2 emission rates based on UIC collated data (t/GWh) 67
Table 4.13: Life-cycle analysis-based CO2 emissions (t/GWh) 68
Table 5.14: Historical costs of construction of nuclear power plants (Cost/kW) 87
Table 5.15: Cost of a new nuclear power plant (Cost/kW) 89
Table 5.16: Cost of power from different sources as a function of discount rate ($/MWh) 91
Table 5.17: Cost of electricity from different sources, entering service in 2015 (€/MWh) 93
Table 5.18: Cost of electricity in Japan ($/MWh), 1999 93
Table 5.19: Cost of electricity generation in Vietnam Cost ($/MWh @ a Discount rate of 5%) 95
Table 6.20: The cost of electricity using different technologies (€/kWh) 103
Table 6.21: Predicted growth in nuclear capacity (GW) 112