The bread and bakery products market had a relatively good year during 2006. There was a higher rate of increase in total retail sales than there was in any of the 4 previous years (2002 to 2005), with sales rising by 3.1% in 2006 to £3.27bn.

As in previous years, the bakery industry has worked hard in its attempts to expand the bread market by means of new product development (NPD), particularly in the area of premium branded products.

The continual consumer interest in healthy eating has also helped market growth. In addition, the threat from the short-lived `Atkins craze' has receded. Most people are now happy to carry on consuming carbohydrates as part of a balanced diet.

White bread, which has always been the largest subsector within the total market for traditional bread, has been less well positioned than brown and wholemeal bread to take advantage of the new focus on healthy eating. The sector particularly suffered from the recent trend for low-carbohydrate diets; the sector's performance during 2005 reflected this to an extent.

The brown/wholemeal sector has seen a resurgence in recent years. 2006 was no exception, as the sector continued to perform well.

The ethnic and speciality breads sector now shows all the characteristics of a mature market, with sales growing only slowly during both 2005 and 2006.

Although bakery products remain the largest individual sector — with overall sales slightly higher than those for white bread — it has also exhibited slower growth. This is a clear sign that the market has matured.

There were some major corporate developments during 2006, most notably the sale of RHM to Premier Foods and the announcement of the sale of Fletchers Bakeries by Northern Foods. These developments will undoubtedly have repercussions during the coming years, including plant closures and job losses. Conversely, there might well be increased NPD as a result of these changes, which is likely to be emulated by other major bread brands.

1. Market Definition
REPORT COVERAGE
MARKET SECTORS
Bread
Ethnic and Speciality Breads
Bakery Products
MARKET TRENDS
Social Factors
Table 1: The UK Sandwich Sector† by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and %) 2001-2005
Demographic Factors
Industry-Related Factors
Economic Trends
Population
Table 2: UK Resident Population Estimates by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2001-2005
Inflation
Table 3: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2001-2005
Unemployment
Table 4: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2001-2005
Household Disposable Income
Table 5: UK Household Disposable Income Per Capita (£), 2001-2005
MARKET POSITION
Table 6: The Size of the Bread and Bakery Products Market Compared with the Total Food Market (£bn at rsp and %), 2006

2. Market Size
THE TOTAL MARKET
Table 7: The Total UK Market for Bread and Bakery Products by Sector by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2002-2006
Figure 1: The Total UK Market for Bread and Bakery Products by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2002-2006
By Market Sector
Bread
Traditional Bread
Table 8: The UK Traditional Bread Sector by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and %), 2002-2006
White Bread
Table 9: The UK White Bread Sector by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and %), 2002-2006
Brown/Wholemeal Bread
Table 10: The UK Brown/Wholemeal Bread Sector by Value at Current prices (£m at rsp and %), 2002-2006
Ethnic and Speciality Breads
Table 11: The UK Ethnic and Speciality Bread Sector by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and %), 2002-2006
Bakery Products
Table 12: The Bakery Products Sector by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and %), 2002-2006
Overseas Trade

3. Industry Background
Recent History
Number Of Companies
Table 13: Number of UK VAT-Based Enterprises Engaged in the Manufacture of Bread, Fresh Pastry Goods and Cakes by Turnover Sizeband (number and %), 2005 and 2006
Employment
Table 14: Number of UK VAT-Based Local Units Engaged in the Manufacture of Bread, Fresh Pastry Goods and Cakes by Employment Sizeband (number and %), 2005 and 2006
Regional Variations in the Marketplace
Distribution
Wholesale Distribution
Retail Distribution
Table 15: Average Weekly Expenditure on Bread and Bakery Products by Place of Purchase (£ and %), 2004-2005
How Robust is the Market?
Legislation
Weights and Measures (Packaged Goods) Regulations 2006
KEY TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
Federation of Bakers
The Flour Advisory Bureau (FAB)
National Association of British and Irish Millers
National Association of Master Bakers
Scottish Association of Master Bakers

4. Competitor Analysis
THE MARKETPLACE
Plant Bakeries
In-Store Bakeries (ISBs)
Craft Bakeries
MARKET LEADERS
Allied Bakeries Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
British Bakeries Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Fine Lady Bakeries Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Fletchers Bakeries Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Frank Roberts & Sons Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Warburtons Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
William Jackson Bakery Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
SPECIALIST RETAILERS
Greggs PLC
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Lyndale Foods Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
OUTSIDE SUPPLIERS
Wheat Supplies
Table 16: Total UK Wheat Harvest (million tonnes), 1985/1986-2005/2006
Table 17: UK Wheat Usage (%), 1985/1986-2005/2006
Flour Millers
Table 18: Total UK Flour Production (000 tonnes), 1985/1986-2005/2006
Table 19: UK Flour Production by Type of Flour by Volume (%), 2001/2002-2005/2006
Marketing Activity
Main Media Advertising Expenditure
Table 20: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Bread and Bakery Products (£000), Years Ending September 2005 and 2006
Table 21: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Allied Bakeries, British Bakeries and Warburtons (£000), Years Ending December 2005 and 2006
Recent Campaigns
Exhibitions

5. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS

6. Buying Behaviour
INTRODUCTION
Consumer Penetration
Table 22: Consumption of Bread in the Last 12 Months (% of adults), 2003-2006
Frequency of Bread Consumption
Table 23: Frequency of Bread Consumption in the Last 12 Months (% of adults), 2004-2006
Table 24: Frequency of White and Brown Bread Consumption in the Last 12 Months (% of adults), 2005 and 2006
By Sex
Table 25: Frequency of Bread Consumption in the Last 12 Months by Sex (% of adults), 2006
By Age
Table 26: Frequency of Bread Consumption in the Last 12 Months by Age (% of adults), 2006
By Social Grade
Table 27: Frequency of Bread Consumption in the Last 12 Months by Social Grade (% of adults), 2006
By Region
Table 28: Frequency of Bread Consumption in the Last 12 Months by Region (% of adults), 2006
By Presence and Age of Children in Household
Table 29: Frequency of Bread Consumption in the Last 12 Months by Presence and Age of Children in Household (% of adults), 2006
Type of Bread Eaten
By Sex
Table 30: Type of Bread Eaten in the Last 12 Months by Sex (% of adults), 2006
Table 31: Type of Bread Eaten Most Often in the Last 12 Months by Sex (% of adults), 2006

7. Current Issues
FOLIC ACID
Salt in Bread
Low-GI bread
Product Recalls
Corporate Developments
Training
Retail News
Supermarkets

8. The Global Market
NORTH AMERICA
EUROPE
REST OF THE WORLD

9. Forecasts
ECONOMIC FORECASTS
Population
Table 32: Forecast UK Resident Population by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2006-2010
Inflation
Table 33: Forecast UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2006-2010
Unemployment
Table 34: Forecast Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2006-2010
Forecasts 2007 to 2011
Table 35: The Forecast Total UK Market for Bread and Bakery Products by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2007-2011
MARKET GROWTH
Figure 2: The Forecast Total UK Market for Bread and Bakery Products by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2002-2011
FUTURE TRENDS

10. Company Profiles
British Bakeries LTD
Fletchers Bakeries Ltd
Frank Roberts & Sons LTD
Greggs Plc
Warburtons LTD
William Jackson Bakery LTD

11. Consumer Confidence
METHODOLOGY
KEY FINDINGS THIS QUARTER
THE WILLINGNESS TO BORROW
Confidence Slips Slightly
Table A: The Average Amount Consumers Are Willing to Borrow in Order to Purchase Expensive Items at Current and Constant November 2004 Prices (£ and £bn), November 2005-2006
Significantly More Adults Are Willing to Borrow
Table B: The Number of Adults Willing to Borrow in Order to Purchase Expensive Items (000 and %), November 2005-2006
SPENDING FROM SAVINGS
Little Change in Spending from Savings
Table C: The Average Amount Consumers Are Willing to Spend from Savings in Order to Purchase Expensive Items at Current and Constant November 2004 Prices (£ and £bn), November 2005-2006
Saving Grows in Relative Importance
Table D: The Average Amounts Adults Are Confident Spending to Purchase Expensive Items (£ and %), November 2005-2006

12. Further Sources