Public houses all over the UK will be smoke-free by July 2007 following government announcements that England, Wales and Northern Ireland will follow the lead taken by Scotland in banning smoking.

Since March 2006, smoking in public places has been outlawed in Scotland. Most Scottish pubs have experienced a decline in sales, as the majority of regular pub-goers are smokers. However, the impact has not been as bad as once feared, because Scottish pubs are attracting more non-smokers and the outdoor smoking areas, in summer at least, can be sociable for drinkers.

The real benefit of the smoking bans will be to drive up sales of food even further. Since 1990, the share of average pub turnover taken by food and soft drinks has risen from under 10% to nearly 25%.

In 2006, total UK pub turnover was £16.35bn at retail selling prices (rsp), a rise of 1.9% on 2005, but this is likely to decline slightly in the wake of the smoking bans. The number of pubs open has already started to decrease, although this has been a gradual process (from 60,000 in 2004 to 57,500 in 2006), and there has been no shortage of companies (pubcos) prepared to buy up the estates put on the market by brewers, the traditional pub owners.

The largest pubcos are Punch Taverns and Enterprise Inns, with approaching 17,000 pubs between them, although their outlets are typically small, leased pubs. By turnover, the largest company is Mitchells & Butlers (with 1,950 pubs and sales of £1.72bn in 2006), which specialises in owning larger, managed pubs, and has branded chains such as O'Neill's, Harvester and All Bar One. Other major players are JD Wetherspoon, which is familiar on most high streets, and two regional brewers, Marston's and Greene King.

Consumer usage of pubs has not changed dramatically, even since the introduction of the new Licensing Act, which allowed pubs to stay open longer (from November 2005). Generally, the public prefer a traditional type of pub and the threat of `24-hour drinking' never materialised. This suggests that pub usage may again find an equilibrium in the wake of the smoking bans.

1. Market Definition
REPORT COVERAGE
Definitions
Background
The Big Six Legacy
The Emergence of the Pubco
Securitisation and Private Equity
MARKET SECTORS
MARKET TRENDS
Long-Term Trends
Recent Trends and Events
ECONOMIC TRENDS
Population
Table 1: UK Resident Population Estimates by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2002-2006
Gross Domestic Product
Table 2: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and Annual Chain-Linked Prices (£m), 2002-2006
Inflation
Table 3: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2002-2006
Unemployment
Table 4: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2002-2006
Household Disposable Income
Table 5: UK Household Disposable Income Per Capita (£), 2002-2006
MARKET POSITION
The UK
Overseas

2. Market Size
THE TOTAL MARKET
By Value
Table 6: The Total UK Public Houses Market by Value at Current Prices and by Volume (£m at rsp, number and £000), 2002-2006
Figure 1: Turnover of Public Houses in the UK at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2002-2006
Table 7: Turnover of Public Houses in the UK at Current and Constant 2002 Prices (£m at rsp and index 2002=100), 2002-2006
By Volume
Number of Pubs Open
Figure 2: Number of Public Houses in the UK, 2002-2006
BY MARKET SECTOR
Food in the Product Mix
Table 8: Trends in the Typical Pub Product Mix (£m and %), 1990-2007
Figure 3: Trends in the Typical Pub Product Mix (%), 1990-2007
Types of Alcohol in Pubs
By Type of Pub
Traditional Versus Modern
Community Versus Destination

3. Industry Background
RECENT HISTORY
Consolidation Among Pubcos (Early 2000s)
Consolidation in the Regions
Legislation on Licensing and Smoking
INDUSTRY SYNOPSIS
Table 9: Financial Results for UK Public Houses and Bars (number, £000, % and £), Latest Financial Year
NUMBER OF COMPANIES
Table 10: Number of UK VAT-Based Enterprises Engaged as Bars† by Turnover Sizeband (number and %), 2000, 2003 and 2006
EMPLOYMENT
Table 11: Number of UK VAT-Based Local Units Engaged as Bars† by Employment Sizeband (number and %), 2005 and 2006
REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN THE MARKETPLACE
HOW ROBUST IS THE MARKET?
LEGISLATION
The Beer Orders
Licensing Act 2003
Smoking Legislation
Other Legislation
KEY TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
The Association of Licensed Multiple Retailers
British Beer & Pub Association
Independent Family Brewers of Britain

4. Competitor Analysis
THE MARKETPLACE
Table 12: Pub Ownership by Type of Owner (number of pubs and %), 2007
MARKET LEADERS
By Number of Pubs
Table 13: Leading Pub Owners by Number of Pubs, 2005-2007
By Turnover
Table 14: Leading Managed Pub Estates by Number of Pubs, 2007
Leading Regional Brewers
Table 15: Leading Regional Brewers by Number of Pubs Owned, 2007
Mitchells & Butlers PLC
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Punch Taverns PLC
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Enterprise Inns PLC
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Admiral Taverns Ltd
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
JD Wetherspoon PLC
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Greene King PLC
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Marston's PLC
Company Structure
Current and Future Developments
Financial Results
Other Companies
County Estate Management Ltd/Pubfolio
Orchid Group Ltd
R20/Rotch Group
Scottish & Newcastle Pub Enterprises Ltd
Trust Inns Ltd
Wellington Pub Company PLC
Whitbread Group PLC
Other Managed House Groups
Other Leased Pub Groups
OUTSIDE SUPPLIERS
Beer Supply
Table 16: Leading Brewers and Their Major Beer Brands, 2007
Other Suppliers
MARKETING ACTIVITY
Main Media Advertising Expenditure
Table 17: Main Media Advertising Expenditure on Pubs† (£000), Year Ending September 2006
Other Marketing and Promotion

5. Brand Strategy
OVERVIEW
Background to Pub Marketing
Branded Multiples

6. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats
STRENGTHS
WEAKNESSES
OPPORTUNITIES
THREATS

7. Buying Behaviour
PUB USAGE
Table 18: Pub Usage in Great Britain by Time and Purpose of Visit (% of respondents), 2002, 2006 and 2007
Consumer Penetration
By Time of Visit
During Weekends and Day Trips
Table 19: Regular Pub Users During Weekends and Day Trips (% of respondents), 2007
At Lunchtime and After Work
Table 20: Regular Pub Users At Lunchtime and After Work (% of respondents), 2007
By Purpose of Visit
Eating Meals and for Celebrations
Table 21: Regular Pub Users for Eating Meals and for Celebrations (% of respondents), 2007
Meeting Friends and Family Occasions
Table 22: Regular Pub Users for Meeting Friends and Family Occasions (% of respondents), 2007
For Entertainment, Watching Sports and Pub Quizzes
Table 23: Regular Pub Users for Entertainment, Watching Sports and Pub Quizzes (% of respondents), 2007
ATTITUDES TOWARDS PUBS
Table 24: Changes That Consumers Would Like to See in Pubs (% of respondents), 2007
Consumer Penetration
Current Issues
Table 25: Attitudes Towards Underage Drinkers, Binge Drinking and Smoking in Pubs (% of respondents), 2007
General Improvements
Table 26: Attitudes Towards Better-Maintained Toilets, a Return to Tradition and Better Food in Pubs (% of respondents), 2007

8. Current Issues
SUPERMARKET PRICES
SMOKING BANS
NEW LICENSING REGIME
MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS

9. The Global Market
OVERVIEW

10. Forecasts
INTRODUCTION
The Economy
Population
Table 27: Forecast UK Resident Population by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2007-2011
Gross Domestic Product
Table 28: Forecast UK Growth in Gross Domestic Product in Real Terms (%), 2007-2011
Inflation
Table 29: Forecast UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2007-2011
Unemployment
Table 30: Forecast Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2007-2011
FORECASTS 2007 TO 2011
Table 31: The Forecast Total UK Public Houses Market by Value at Current Prices and by Volume (£m at rsp and number), 2007-2011
MARKET GROWTH
Figure 4: Turnover of Public Houses in the UK at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2002-2011
Figure 5: Number of Public Houses in the UK, 2002-2011
FUTURE TRENDS
Smoking Bans
Food in Pubs
Sports Events
Gambling Reform

11. Company Profiles
Admiral Taverns Ltd
Enterprise Inns Plc
Greene King Plc
JD Wetherspoon Plc
Marston's Plc
Mitchells & Butlers Plc
Punch Taverns Plc
Scottish & Newcastle Plc

12. Company Financials

13. Consumer Confidence
METHODOLOGY
KEY FINDINGS THIS QUARTER
THE WILLINGNESS TO BORROW
Confidence Improves
Table A: The Average Amount Consumers Are Willing to Borrow in Order to Purchase Expensive Items at Current and Constant November 2004 Prices (£ and £bn), February 2006-2007
Willingness to Borrow Slips Slightly
Table B: The Number of Adults Willing to Borrow in Order to Purchase Expensive Items (000 and %), February 2006-2007
SPENDING FROM SAVINGS
Slight Increase in Spending from Savings
Table C: The Average Amount Consumers Are Willing to Spend from Savings in Order to Purchase Expensive Items at Current and Constant November 2004 Prices (£ and £bn), February 2006-2007
Saving Grows in Relative Importance
Table D: The Average Amounts Adults Are Confident Spending to Purchase Expensive Items (£ and %), February 2006-2007

14. Further Sources
Associations
Publications
General Sources
Government Publications
Other Sources
Bisnode Sources