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Introduction

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Roche in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Scope

Highlights

Reasons to Purchase

Benchmark Roche's performance against key rivals in the ethical pharmaceutical sector

Analyze the factors that will drive Roche to record the fastest sales growth rate across the Big Pharma peer set out to 2012

Assess Roche's industry leading mAb portfolio and its relationship with the US biotech and mAb specialist Genentech

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
Key findings 2
Historical and forecast ethical sales performance 3
Therapeutic strategy 5
Launch and expiry outlook 8
Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies 12
Externalization strategy 13
Geographic strategy 14
Molecule type strategy 15
SWOT analysis 16
Strengths 16
Access to market-leading mAb portfolio 17
Focus on high-growth therapy markets 18
'Hub and spoke' M&A integration strategy 19
Low exposure to generic competition 20
Weaknesses 20
Over-reliance on 'core' portfolio 20
Opportunities 21
Extensive indication broadening 21
Therapeutic diversification in mAb market 22
Expansion of Japanese market share via Chugai 23
Increased pharmaceuticals/diagnostics cross-over 23
Threats 24
Potential 'victim of own success' 24
Failure to live up to market expectation 24
Genentech and Chugai 25
CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY 31
Key findings 31
Background 32
Key corporate developments 32
Pharmaceuticals division 32
Genentech 32
Chugai 33
Diagnostics division 33
Pursuit of Ventana Medical Systems 33
Divestments 34
M&A history 35
M&A strategy 35
Genentech 36
Overview 36
'Locking in' mAb expertise 36
Product licensing agreement 37
US sales consolidation 38
Genentech's independence maintained 38
Chugai 39
Japanese position strengthened 39
Non-integrative merger 39
Boost to Chugai pipeline... 40
...and a boost to Roche's pipeline 40
Large-scale M&A 40
Recent small-scale M&A 41
454 Life Sciences 41
Therapeutic Human Polyclonals (THP) 42
BioVeris 42
NimbleGen 42
Alnylam 42
Current corporate structure 43
'Twin-pillared' structure 43
Pharmaceuticals and diagnostics 43
Pharmaceutical division 44
Roche's pharma diversification strategy 45
Therapeutic diversification 46
Technology diversification 46
Geographic diversification 47
Risks to Roche's corporate strategy 47
Current management team 48
CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 49
Key findings 49
Introduction 50
Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2001-06 50
Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set 51
Product analysis, 2001-06 53
Growth drivers 54
MabThera/Rituxan 54
Herceptin 54
Avastin 55
Tamiflu 55
NeoRecormon 55
Pegasys 56
Growth resistors 56
Xenical 56
Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2001-06 57
Operating revenue/cost analysis 59
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE 61
Key findings 61
Introduction 62
Revenue and growth rate, 2006-12 62
Majority of Big Pharma peer set hit by 'patent cliff'... 63
...with Roche the exception 63
Roche sales growth to be driven by oncology mAb portfolio 64
However, sales growth deceleration will occur 66
Product analysis, 2006-12 67
Growth drivers 71
Avastin 71
Herceptin 72
MabThera/Rituxan 73
Future competitive threat for Roche's 'holy trinity' 73
Tarceva 75
Lucentis 76
Growth resistors 76
CellCept 77
NeoRecormon 77
Therapy area analysis, 2006-12 79
Oncology 82
Other (primarily Lucentis) 83
Immunology & inflammation 83
Urology & sexual health 84
Infectious diseases 84
Cardiovascular & hematology 85
Therapy area focus 86
Launches and expiries analysis, 2006-12 90
Launch portfolio 91
Pertuzumab 92
Core portfolio 94
Expiry portfolio 96
Launch/core/expiry configuration 98
Externalization analysis, 2006-12 102
Geographic analysis, 2006-12 107
Molecule type analysis, 2006-12 111
CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 118
Key findings 118
Overview 119
Oncology 120
Avastin 120
Overview 120
Sales forecast 121
Newsflow 121
Herceptin 125
Overview 125
Sales forecast 126
Newsflow 127
MabThera/Rituxan 130
Overview 130
Sales forecast 131
Newsflow 131
Tarceva 134
Overview 134
Sales forecast 135
Newsflow 136
Infectious diseases 138
Pegasys 138
Overview 138
Sales forecast 139
Newsflow 139
Tamiflu 141
Overview 141
Sales forecast 142
Newsflow 142
Immunology & inflammation 144
Actemra 144
Overview 144
Sales forecast 145
Newsflow 146
MabThera/Rituxan RA 149
Overview 149
Sales forecast 150
Newsflow 150
CellCept 152
Overview 152
Sales forecast 153
Newsflow 153
Cardiovascular & hematology 156
NeoRecormon 156
Overview 156
Sales forecast 157
Newsflow 157
Mircera 160
Overview 160
Sales forecast 161
Newsflow 162
Other 165
Lucentis 165
Overview 165
Sales forecast 166
Newsflow 167
R&D pipeline 169
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 175
IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation 175
Abbreviations 178
Exchange rates 179
List of Tables
Table 1: Roche Group Corporate Executive Committee 48
Table 2: Peer set overview 51
Table 3: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-06 57
Table 4: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-06 59
Table 5: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 67
Table 6: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 79
Table 7: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 91
Table 8: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 94
Table 9: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 96
Table 10: Externally developed portfolio ($m), 2006-12 102
Table 11: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 111
Table 12: Key products overview 119
Table 13: Avastin: Overview 120
Table 14: Avastin: Sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 121
Table 15: Avastin: Newsflow 121
Table 16: Herceptin: Overview 125
Table 17: Herceptin: Sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 126
Table 18: Herceptin: Newsflow 127
Table 19: MabThera/Rituxan: Overview 130
Table 20: MabThera/Rituxan: Sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 131
Table 21: MabThera/Rituxan: Newsflow 131
Table 22: Tarceva: Overview 134
Table 23: Tarceva: Sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 135
Table 24: Tarceva: Newsflow 136
Table 25: Pegasys: Overview 138
Table 26: Pegasys: Sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 139
Table 27: Pegasys: Newsflow 139
Table 28: Tamiflu: Overview 141
Table 29: Tamiflu: Sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 142
Table 30: Tamiflu: Newsflow 142
Table 31: Actemra: Overview 144
Table 32: Actemra: Sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 145
Table 33: Actemra: Newsflow 146
Table 34: MabThera/Rituxan RA: Overview 149
Table 35: MabThera/Rituxan RA: Sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 150
Table 36: MabThera/Rituxan RA: Newsflow 150
Table 37: CellCept: Overview 152
Table 38: CellCept: Sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 153
Table 39: CellCept: Newsflow 153
Table 40: NeoRecormon: Overview 156
Table 41: NeoRecormon: Sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 157
Table 42: NeoRecormon: Newsflow 157
Table 43: Mircera: Overview 160
Table 44: Mircera: Sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 161
Table 45: Mircera: Newsflow 162
Table 46: Lucentis: Overview 165
Table 47: Lucentis: Sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 166
Table 48: Lucentis: Newsflow 167
Table 49: Roche's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 170
Table 50: Roche's indication broadening pipeline (Phase I-registration) 172
Table 51: Exchange rates, 2006 179
List of Figures
Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), Roche and Big Pharma peer set 4
Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Big Pharma peer set (%), 2006 6
Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), Roche 8
Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set 10
Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2006 12
Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2012 13
Figure 7: SWOT analysis of Roche 16
Figure 8: Roche group ethical pharmaceutical sales by company division 2006-12 (US$m) 26
Figure 9: Roche group absolute annual sales growth by company division 2006-12 (US$m) 27
Figure 10: M&A/divestment history 35
Figure 11: Current corporate structure 43
Figure 12: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2001-06 50
Figure 13: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2001-06 52
Figure 14: Growth driver/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2001-06 53
Figure 15: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-06 58
Figure 16: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-06 60
Figure 17: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2006-12 62
Figure 18: Top five products by sales ($m), 2006 69
Figure 19: Top five products by sales ($m), 2012 70
Figure 20: Growth drivers and resistors by product, 2006-12 71
Figure 21: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2006-12 78
Figure 22: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 80
Figure 23: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area (%), 2006-12 82
Figure 24: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2006-12 86
Figure 25: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2006 87
Figure 26: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2012 89
Figure 27: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12 93
Figure 28: Core products sales growth ($m), 2006-12 95
Figure 29: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12 97
Figure 30: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2006-12, Roche 98
Figure 31: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), Roche 99
Figure 32: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set 100
Figure 33: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2006-12 103
Figure 34: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2006-12 104
Figure 35: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 105
Figure 36: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 106
Figure 37: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12 107
Figure 38: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2006-12 108
Figure 39: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 109
Figure 40: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 110
Figure 41: Growth drivers and resistors by molecule type, sales ($m), 2006-12 112
Figure 42: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12 113
Figure 43: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 116
Figure 44: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 117
Figure 45: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2006 176
Figure 46: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2006-12 177