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Introduction

This analysis examines the historical and forecast performance for Shionogi in the ethical pharmaceutical sector. The profile encompasses global company strategy, portfolio and pipeline analysis and assessment of financial performance, with 1-6 year sales forecasts for key drugs. An interactive forecasting and analysis tool provides continually updated quantitative and qualitative information.

Scope

Highlights

Reasons to Purchase

Benchmark Shionogi's performance against key rivals in the ethical pharmaceutical sector

See how Shionogi's is coming under increasing pressure in its domestic market, forcing the company to look to geographic expansion to maintain growth

TABLE OF CONTENTS
CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2
Key findings 2
Historical and forecast ethical sales performance 3
Therapeutic strategy 4
Launch and expiry outlook 7
Externalization, geographic and molecule type strategies 9
Externalization strategy 10
Geographic strategy 11
Molecule type strategy 11
SWOT analysis 12
Strengths 12
Weaknesses 13
Opportunities 14
Threats 14
CHAPTER 2 CORPORATE HISTORY 19
Key findings 19
Background 20
Key corporate developments 20
M&A history 21
Establishment of Aventis CropScience Shionogi K.K. 21
Establishment of Shionogi-GSK Pharmaceuticals LLC 21
Establishment of Boehringer Ingelheim Shionogi Vetmedica Co. 21
Establishment of Shionogi Biomedical Laboratories 21
Industrial chemicals business transferred to DSL. Japan Co., Ltd. 22
Establishment of Shionogi Analysis Center Co. 22
M&A strategy 22
Current corporate structure 23
Ethical pharmaceuticals 23
Consumer health 23
Diagnostics 24
Current management team 24
CHAPTER 3 HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE 25
Key findings 25
Introduction 26
Revenue and growth rate analysis, 2001-06 26
Revenue and growth rate vs. peer set 27
Product analysis, 2001-06 29
Growth drivers 29
Crestor royalties 29
Claritine 30
Oxycontin 30
Imunace 30
Growth resistors 31
Flumarin 31
Vancomycin 31
Flomox 31
Operating revenue and cost analysis, 2001-06 32
Operating revenue/cost analysis 34
CHAPTER 4 FORECAST PERFORMANCE 35
Key findings 35
Introduction 36
Revenue and growth rate, 2006-12 36
Product analysis, 2006-12 37
Growth drivers 42
Finibax 42
Crestor royalties 43
Duloxetine 43
Finibax royalties 44
Growth resistors 44
Vancomycin 44
Flomox 44
Flumarin 45
Imunace 45
Therapy area analysis, 2006-12 47
Growth drivers 49
Cardiovascular and hematology 49
Central nervous system 50
Infectious disease 50
Respiratory 50
Growth resistors 51
Oncology 51
Gastroenterology 51
Musculoskeletal 51
Therapy area focus 52
Launches and expiries analysis, 2006-12 55
Launch portfolio 55
Core portfolio 58
Expiry portfolio 61
Launch/core/expiry configuration 63
Externalization analysis, 2006-12 66
Geographic analysis, 2006-12 71
Molecule type analysis, 2006-12 75
CHAPTER 5 KEY PRODUCTS AND COMPETITORS 79
Key findings 79
Overview 80
Cardiovascular & hematology 81
Crestor royalties 81
Overview 81
Sales forecast 82
Newsflow 83
Competitive landscape 84
Crestor 87
Overview 87
Sales forecast 88
Newsflow 88
Competitive landscape 89
Irbesartan 91
Overview 91
Sales forecast 92
Newsflow 92
Competitive landscape 93
Infectious diseases 94
Flomox 94
Overview 94
Sales forecast 95
Newsflow 95
Competitive landscape 96
Vancomycin 98
Overview 98
Sales forecast 99
Newsflow 99
Competitive landscape 100
Flumarin 102
Overview 102
Sales forecast 103
Newsflow 103
Competitive landscape 104
Finibax 106
Overview 106
Sales forecast 107
Newsflow 107
Competitive landscape 108
Finibax royalties 110
Overview 110
Sales forecast 111
Newsflow 111
Competitive landscape 111
Respiratory 114
Claritine 114
Overview 114
Sales forecast 115
Newsflow 115
Competitive landscape 116
Central nervous system 119
Duloxetine 119
Overview 119
Sales forecast 120
Newsflow 120
Competitive landscape 121
Oncology 123
Imunace 123
Overview 123
Sales forecast 124
Newsflow 124
Competitive landscape 125
R&D pipeline 127
CHAPTER 6 APPENDIX 129
IMS vs. company-reported data reconciliation 129
References 131
Abbreviations 132
Exchange rates 133
List of Tables
Table 1: Shionogi Corporate Executive Committee 24
Table 2: Japanese Pharma peer set overview 27
Table 3: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-06 32
Table 4: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-06 34
Table 5: Product portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 37
Table 6: Therapy area overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 47
Table 7: Launch portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 55
Table 8: Core portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 58
Table 9: Expiry portfolio overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 61
Table 10: Externally developed portfolio ($m), 2006-12 66
Table 11: Molecule type overview, sales ($m), 2006-12 75
Table 12: Key products overview 80
Table 13: Crestor royalties: overview 81
Table 14: Crestor royalties: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 82
Table 15: Crestor royalties: newsflow 83
Table 16: Crestor: overview 87
Table 17: Crestor: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 88
Table 18: Crestor: newsflow 88
Table 19: Irbesartan: overview 91
Table 20: Irbesartan: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 92
Table 21: Irbesartan: newsflow 92
Table 22: Flomox: overview 94
Table 23: Flomox: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 95
Table 24: Flomox: newsflow 95
Table 25: Vancomycin: overview 98
Table 26: Vancomycin: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 99
Table 27: Vancomycin: newsflow 99
Table 28: Flumarin: overview 102
Table 29: Flumarin: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 103
Table 30: Flumarin: newsflow 103
Table 31: Finibax: overview 106
Table 32: Finibax: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 107
Table 33: Finibax: newsflow 107
Table 34: Finibax royalties: overview 110
Table 35: Finibax royalties: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 111
Table 36: Finibax royalties: newsflow 111
Table 37: Claritine: overview 114
Table 38: Claritine: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 115
Table 39: Claritine: newsflow 115
Table 40: Duloxetine: overview 119
Table 41: Duloxetine: sales forecast ($m), 2006-12 120
Table 42: Duloxetine: newsflow 120
Table 43: Imunace: overview 123
Table 44: Imunace: sales forecast ($m), 2005-11 124
Table 45: Imunace: newsflow 124
Table 46: Shionogi's R&D pipeline (Phase I-registration) 127
Table 47: Shionogi's indication broadening pipeline (Phase I-registration) 128
Table 48: Exchange rates, 2006 133
List of Figures
Figure 1: Historical and forecast ethical sales performance (% CAGR), Shionogi and Japanese Pharma peer set 3
Figure 2: Therapeutic focus vs. Japanese Pharma peer set (%), 2006 5
Figure 3: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), Shionogi 7
Figure 4: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set 8
Figure 5: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2006 9
Figure 6: Molecule type, externalization and geographic market dependency (%) vs. peer set, 2012 10
Figure 7: SWOT analysis of Shionogi 12
Figure 8: Shionogi key developments 20
Figure 9: Current corporate structure 23
Figure 10: Revenue & growth rate (ethical sales) ($m), 2001-06 26
Figure 11: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%) vs. peer set, 2001-06 28
Figure 12: Growth drivers/resistor products of historical revenue performance ($m), 2001-06 29
Figure 13: Operating revenue/cost analysis ($m), 2001-06 33
Figure 14: Operating cost ratio analysis (% of total revenues), 2001-06 34
Figure 15: Ethical revenue ($m) and growth rate (%), 2006-12 36
Figure 16: Top five products by sales ($m), 2006 39
Figure 17: Top five products by sales ($m), 2012 39
Figure 18: Growth drivers and resistors by product, 2006-12 42
Figure 19: Key strategic products, sales ($m), 2006-12 46
Figure 20: Ethical sales by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 48
Figure 21: Growth drivers and resistors by therapy area ($m), 2006-12 49
Figure 22: Ethical sales by therapy area (%), 2006-12 52
Figure 23: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2006 53
Figure 24: Therapy area focus compared with peer set (% total ethical sales), 2012 53
Figure 25: Launch schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12 57
Figure 26: Core products sales growth ($m), 2006-12 60
Figure 27: Expiry schedule, sales ($m), 2006-12 62
Figure 28: Launch, core and expiry, sales ($m), 2006-12 63
Figure 29: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), Shionogi 64
Figure 30: Launch, core and expiry, absolute sales growth, 2006-12 (sales as % of 2006 sales), peer set 65
Figure 31: Externalization dependency, sales ($m), 2006-12 67
Figure 32: Growth drivers and resistors, externally vs. internally discovered products, sales ($m), 2006-12 68
Figure 33: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 69
Figure 34: Externalization dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 70
Figure 35: Geographical sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12 71
Figure 36: Growth drivers and resistors by geography, sales ($m), 2006-12 72
Figure 37: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 73
Figure 38: US dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 74
Figure 39: Growth drivers and resistors by molecule type, sales ($m), 2006-12 75
Figure 40: Molecule type sales breakdown ($m), 2006-12 76
Figure 41: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2006 77
Figure 42: Biologics dependency vs. peer set, % total sales, 2012 78
Figure 43: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales discrepancy ($m), 2006 130
Figure 44: IMS vs. company-reported ethical sales forecast growth rates (%), 2006-12 131