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China owns the world’s largest telecommunication networks in terms of both network capacity and number of subscribers. As one of China’s core industries, the telecom industry has experienced double-digit growth for the past decade. The convergence of broadband telecom networks, digital TV networks, and the Internet, combined with the future deployment of 3G licenses in China, is expected to create tremendous opportunities for both domestic and foreign players in the telecom service industry. Also, the preparations for the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing and the World Expo 2010 in Shanghai are expected to add on these developments, according to ````China Telecom Analysis (2008-2012)”, a recent market research report by RNCOS.

The report provides extensive research on the rapidly growing Chinese telecom market. It provides detailed analysis on the fixed-line telephony, mobile telephony, Internet, and broadband market in the country, coupled with its current performance and future prospects. The study looks at how telecom operators’ strategies and government support could be used to bridge the growing economic and social divide between rural and urban areas.

This report helps clients to have an insight into the domestic telecom market along with status of emerging technologies and future scenario, including subscribers growth, handset sales, market share, market penetration, opportunities, and roadblocks.

Key Findings

• Mobile subscriber base in China expanded by 18.7% in 2007 and is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 8% during 2008-2012.
  
  
• The eastern province dominates the China mobile market in terms of subscriber base; however, the future growth is expected to come from western and central province.
  
  
• Growth in PC ownership and broadband access will promote the further expansion of Internet users in coming few years, leading the Internet penetration rate to over 33% by 2012 end.
  
  
• The Mobile TV market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of over 33% to cross 3 Billion Yuan by 2011 end.
  
  
• China’s telecom value-added service market is forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 27% till 2012, of which Mobile value-added service will account for 95%.
  
  
• Online gaming market is anticipated to surpass CAGR of 55% in coming few years.

Key Issues

• What is the current scenario of the China telecom market?
  
  
• What are the emerging trends and technologies in the market?
  
  
• What is the market share of urban/rural telecom market in China?
  
  
• How lucrative is the Chinese telecom market for domestic and foreign players?
  
  
• What are the various opportunities emerging for the China telecom market?
  
  
• How value-added services and handset manufacturing markets are emerging as huge opportunity in China?
  
  
• Which states/provinces have greater potential of growth in China?
  
  
• Which factors should be addressed for smooth growth and development of the market?
  
  
• Who are the key players in China telecom market?

Research Methodology Used Information Sources
Information has been sourced from books, newspapers, trade journals, and white papers, industry portals, government agencies, trade associations, industry news and developments and through access to more than 3000 paid databases.

Analysis Methods
The analysis methods include ratio analysis, historical trend analysis, linear regression analysis using software tools, judgmental forecasting and cause and effect analysis. 
 

1. Analyst View

2. China Telecom Market - An Overview

3. Market Attractions

3.1 Economic Landscape

3.2 Population Base

3.3 Government Support

3.4 Affordable Telecom Services & Access Devices

3.5 Bridging the “Digital Divide”

3.6 3G Technology

4. China Telecom Market Performance - Past, Present & Future

4.1 Fixed-line Telephony

4.1.1 By Subscriber

4.1.2 By Service Provider

4.1.3 By Province

4.2 Mobile Telephony

4.2.1 By Subscriber

4.2.2 By Technology

4.2.3 By Service Provider

4.2.4 By Handset Provider

4.2.5 By Province

4.3 Internet

4.3.1 By User

4.3.2 By Urban/Rural Area

4.3.3 Recent Developments

4.4 Broadband

4.4.1 By User

4.4.2 By Coverage

4.4.3 By Service Provider

4.4.4 Recent Developments

5. Emerging Technologies

5.1 3G - TDSCDMA

5.2 IPTV

5.3 Mobile TV

5.4 WiMAX

5.5 WiFi

6. Emerging Opportunity Areas

6.1 Handset Manufacturing

6.2 PC Penetration

6.3 Infrastructure Equipment Vendors

6.4 Value-added Services

6.5 Network Security

6.6 Content & Application Development

6.7 Online Gaming

6.8 Online Advertising

7. Growth Inhibitors & RNCOS Recommendations

7.1 Discriminatory Policies

7.2 Support to Proprietary Standards

7.3 Internet Piracy & Copyright Infringement

8. Competitive Landscape

8.1 Service Providers

8.1.1 China Mobile

8.1.2 China Unicom

8.1.3 China Telecom

8.1.4 China Netcom Group Corp (HK) Ltd.

8.1.5 China Tietong

List of Figures:

Figure 2-1: China - Investment in Telecommunication Industry (in Billion Yuan), 2005-2007

Figure 2-2: China - Telecommunication Industry Revenue (in Billion Yuan), 2005-2007

Figure 2-3: China - Communication Business Income by Province (in Billion Yuan), Jan-Nov 2006 & Jan-Nov 2007

Figure 2-4: China - Share in Global Mobile Subscriber Base (%), 2007E

Figure 3-1: China - GDP (in Trillion Yuan), 2002-2007

Figure 3-2: China - Fixed Assets Investment in Urban & Rural Areas (%), 2007

Figure 3-3: China - Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban & Rural Households (in Yuan), 2002-2007E

Figure 3-4: China - Rural Population by Per Capita Disposable Income (in Yuan), 2005 & 2006

Figure 3-5: China - Population (in Million), 2001-2007E

Figure 3-6: China - Population Breakup by Urban & Rural Areas (%), 2006

Figure 4-1: China - Number of Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers* (in Million), 2002-2007

Figure 4-2: China - Penetration of Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers (%), 2002-2007

Figure 4-3: China - Forecast for Number of Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers (in Million), 2008-2012

Figure 4-4: China - Forecast for Penetration of Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers (%), 2008-2012

Figure 4-5: China - Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers by Service Provider (%), 2007

Figure 4-6: China - Number of Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers by Province (in Million), 2006 & 2007

Figure 4-7: China - Number of Mobile Subscribers (in Million), 2002-2007

Figure 4-8: China - Penetration of Mobile Subscribers (%), 2002-2007

Figure 4-9: China - Local Mobile Phone Talk Time (in Billion Minutes), 2004-2007

Figure 4-10: China - Share of Mobile Calls in Long Distance Calls (%), 2007

Figure 4-11: China - Share of Mobile SMS Traffic in SMS Business (%), 2007

Figure 4-12: China - Forecast for Number of Mobile Subscribers (in Million), 2008-2012

Figure 4-13: China - Forecast for Penetration of Mobile Subscribers (%), 2008-2012

Figure 4-14: China - Number of Mobile Subscribers by Technology (in Million), 2006 & 2007

Figure 4-15: China - Mobile Subscribers by Service Provider (%), 2007

Figure 4-16: China - Mobile Subscribers by Service Type (%), 2006 & 2007E

Figure 4-17: China - Mobile Phone Sales (in Million Units), 2006 & 2007

Figure 4-18: China - Mobile Phone Sales by Vendor (%), Q3 2007

Figure 4-19: China - Number of Mobile Subscribers by Province (in Million), 2006 & 2007

Figure 4-20: China - Penetration of Mobile Subscribers by Province (%), 2006 & 2007

Figure 4-21: China - Number of Internet Users (in Million), 2002-2007

Figure 4-22: China - Penetration of Internet Users (%), 2002-2007

Figure 4-23: China - Forecast for Number of Internet Users (in Million), 2008-2012

Figure 4-24: China - Forecast for Penetration of Internet Users (%), 2008-2012

Figure 4-25: China - Number of Internet Users in Urban & Rural Areas (in Million), 2006 & 2007

Figure 4-26: China - Penetration of Internet Users in Rural & Urban Areas (%), Dec 2005 to Dec 2007

Figure 4-27: China - Comparison of Age Structure for Rural & Urban Internet Population (%), June 2007

Figure 4-28: China - Internet Users in Rural & Urban by Income (%), June 2007

Figure 4-29: China - Number of Broadband Users (in Million), 2004-2007

Figure 4-30: China - Penetration of Broadband Users (%), 2004-2007

Figure 4-31: China - Forecast for Number of Broadband Users (in Million), 2008-2012

Figure 4-32: China - Forecast for Penetration of Broadband Users (%), 2008-2012

Figure 4-33: China - Villages Covered under Broadband Services (%), 2007 & 2008E

Figure 4-34: China - Broadband Subscribers by Service Provider (%), 2007

Figure 5-1: China - Forecast for Number of TDSCDMA Subscribers (in Million), 2008-2011

Figure 5-2: China - Forecast for 3G Users by Standard (%), 2008-2011

Figure 5-3: China - IPTV Users by Major Province (%), 2007E

Figure 5-4: China - Forecast for Number of IPTV Users (in Million), 2007*-2011

Figure 5-5: China - Forecast for Number of Mobile TV Users (in Million), 2008-2011

Figure 5-6: China - Forecast for Mobile TV Market (in Billion Yuan), 2008-2011

Figure 5-7: China - Forecast for Number of WiMAX Users (in Million), 2009-2012

Figure 5-8: China - Forecast for WiMAX Subscribers by Service (%), 2011

Figure 5-9: China - WiMAX Market Revenue (in Billion US$), 2007E & 2012F

Figure 6-1: China - Forecast for Mobile Handset Sales (in Million), 2008-2012

Figure 6-2: China - Mobile Handset Production (in Million), 2006 & 2007E

Figure 6-3: China - Share in Global Mobile Handset Production (%), 2007E

Figure 6-4: China - PC Shipment (in Million Units), 2006 & 2007

Figure 6-5: China - Forecast for PC Shipment (in Million Units), 2008-2011

Figure 6-6: China - Data Communication Equipment Market (in Billion Yuan), 2006 & 2007

Figure 6-7: China - Data Communication Equipment Market by Segment (%), 2007

Figure 6-8: China - Value-added Telecom Services Revenue (in Billion Yuan), 2006 & 2007

Figure 6-9: China - Share of MVAS in Value-added Telecom Services (%), 2007E

Figure 6-10: China - Forecast for Value-added Telecom Services Revenue (in Billion Yuan), 2008-2012

Figure 6-11: China - Forecast for Share of MVAS in Value-added Telecom Services (%), 2012

Figure 6-12: China - Network Security Product Market (in Billion Yuan), 2005-2008E

Figure 6-13: China - Number of Online Game Players (in Million), 2006 & 2007

Figure 6-14: China - Forecast for Number of Online Game Players (in Million), 2008-2012

Figure 6-15: China - Online Games Market (in Billion Yuan), 2006 & 2007

Figure 6-16: China - Forecast for Online Games Market (in Billion Yuan), 2008-2010

Figure 6-17: China - Online Advertising Market (in Billion Yuan), 2006 & 2007

Figure 6-18: China - Online Advertising Market by Segment (%), 2007

Figure 6-19: China - Online Advertisement Market by Sector (%), 2007

Figure 6-20: China - Forecast for Online Advertisement Market (in Billion Yuan), 2008 & 2011

List of Tables:

Table 4-1: China - Share of Urban & Rural Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers by Province (%), 2006 & 2007

Table 4-2: China - Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers in Eastern Province by State (in Million), 2007

Table 4-3: China - Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers in Central Province by State (in Million), 2007

Table 4-4: China - Fixed-line Telephone Subscribers in Western Province by State (in Million), 2007

Table 4-5: China - Mobile Subscribers in Eastern Province by State (in Million), 2006 & 2007

Table 4-6: China - Mobile Subscribers in Central Province by State (in Million), 2006 & 2007

Table 4-7: China - Mobile Subscribers in Western Province by State (in Million), 2006 & 2007