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Introduction

Retailers in the UK face huge challenges as they struggle cope with a sudden deterioration in consumers' willingness to spend. The credit crunch, the downturn in the housing market and the rising cost of living are having a profound impact on consumer confidence that will require retailers to adapt their strategies and make accurate and reliable forecasts essential.

Scope

Forecasts for whole of UK retail for consumer spending, store sales, store numbers, space, sales densities with summary breakdown by channel

Market value and growth, inflation 1997-2007 with annual forecasts to 2012 for 10 retail sectors

Specialists sales, space, like-for-like growth, sales densities and store numbers 1997-2007 with annual forecasts to 2012 for each retail sector

Channels of distribution analysis for 2006, 2007 and 2012 and full discussion of issues for each retail sector

Highlights

Over the next five years the retail market will grow by 16.3%, taking its value from £280.9bn to £326.6bn. Though this is a higher rate of growth than the 15.5% rate achieved over the last five years, the market will be lifted by inflation rather than volume growth. In real terms total retail spending growth will be markedly slower.

2008 and 2009 will be particularly challenging years for retailers as consumers cut back on non-essential purchases. The most significant determinant of shopping behaviour in the short term will be sharp increases in the cost of living, particularly from higher fuel and utility costs which are diverting households' funds away from non-food retail.

Retail space will grow faster over the next five years, due largely to a boom in shopping centre openings. Over the forecast period 33.9m sq ft will be opened, a 5.8% increase, with over 8m sq ft created in 2008 alone.

Reasons to Purchase

Plan for the future use this report to plan strategies that will help you compete effectively against rivals and adapt to changing market conditions

Detailed category forecasts allow you to quantify and exploit opportunities in fast growing categories and avoid over-investment in weaker segments.

Evaluate your current position with regard to the market's future growth prospects

CHAPTER 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 6
Key Findings 6
Main Conclusions 7
CHAPTER 2 FORECAST SUMMARY 11
Consumer Spending 11
Specialists Sales 14
Space 17
Sales Densities 19
Sectors 21
CHAPTER 3 UK ECONOMIC FORECASTS 22
Key Messages 22
Gross Domestic Product - GDP 27
How does it affect retail? 27
What's happened? 28
What will happen? 28
Earnings Growth 29
How does it affect retail? 29
What's happened? 31
What will happen? 31
Real Household Disposable Income 33
How does it affect retail? 33
What's happened? 34
What will happen? 34
Employment 35
How does it affect retail? 36
What's happened? 36
What will happen? 37
Inflation 38
How does it affect retail? 39
What's happened? 39
What will happen? 40
Exchange Rates 41
How do they affect retail? 41
What's happened? 41
What will happen? 42
Interest Rates 43
How do they affect retail? 43
What's happened? 44
What will happen? 45
Savings Ratio 46
How does it affect retail? 46
What's happened? 46
What will happen? 47
Consumer Debt 48
How does it affect retail? 48
What's happened? 49
What will happen? 49
Equities 51
How does it affect retail? 51
What's happened? 52
What will happen? 52
House Price Inflation 53
How does it affect retail? 53
What's happened? 54
What will happen? 54
Housing Equity Withdrawal 55
How does it affect retail? 55
What's happened? 56
What will happen? 57
Housing Transactions 58
How does it affect retail? 58
What's happened? 58
What will happen? 59
CHAPTER 4 UK RETAILING FORECASTS 60
Key Indicators 60
Retail Expenditure 1997-2012 62
Sales by Location 2007-2012 68
Sources of Growth 1997-2012 72
Store Numbers by Location 1997-2012 74
Space by Location 1997-2012 76
Sales Density by Location 1997-2012 79
Average Store Size 1997-2012 81
Average Store Sales 1997-2012 83
Online Retail Spending 84
CHAPTER 5 SECTOR ANALYSIS 86
Introduction 86
Books, News & Stationery 87
Forecast Summary 87
Books 88
Newspapers and Magazines 90
Greeting Cards and Stationery 91
Channels of Distribution 93
Specialists Retail Sales 94
Consumer Spending 96
Catalogue Retailers 99
Forecast Summary 99
Channels of Distribution 101
Specialists Retail Sales 104
Clothing & Footwear 105
Forecast Summary 105
Channels of Distribution 109
Clothing Specialists Retail Sales 113
Footwear Specialists Retail Sales 115
Consumer Spending 117
DIY & Gardening 124
Forecast Summary 124
Channels of Distribution 128
Specialists Retail Sales 132
Consumer Spending 136
Electricals 143
Forecast Summary 143
Channels of Distribution 146
Specialists Retail Sales 149
Consumer Spending 153
Food & Grocery 157
Forecast Summary 157
Channels of Distribution 159
Specialists Retail Sales 162
Consumer Spending 166
Furniture & Floorcoverings 172
Forecast Summary 172
Channels of Distribution 175
Specialists Retail Sales 181
Consumer Spending 185
Health & Beauty 189
Forecast Summary 189
Channels of Distribution 192
Specialists Retail Sales 196
Consumer Spending 198
Homewares 206
Forecast Summary 206
Channels of Distribution 207
Consumer Spending 212
Music & Video 216
Music & Video 216
Forecast Summary 216
Channels of Distribution 220
Channels of Distribution 220
Specialists Retail Sales 223
Consumer Spending 226
CHAPTER 6 MARKET DEFINITIONS 229
Books, News & Stationery 229
Catalogue Retailers 230
Clothing & Footwear 231
DIY & Gardening 232
Electricals 233
Food & Grocery 234
Furniture & Floorcoverings 235
Health & Beauty 236
Homewares 237
Music & Video 238
CHAPTER 7 GLOSSARY 239
Terminology 239
Location Definitions 240
Town Centre 240
Out-of-town 240
Neighbourhood 240
Non-store Retail 241
Forecasting Methodology 241
Abbreviations 243
List of Tables
Table 1: Sector forecast summaries 2007-2012 21
Table 2: Economic drivers for retail 2008 22
Table 3: Measures of inflation 2008 38
Table 4: UK retailing forecasts summary 2007-2012 60
Table 5: Forecast chronology 2008-2012 61
Table 6: Total consumer retail expenditure 1997-2012 62
Table 7: Sales by location 1997-2012 69
Table 8: Total UK physical store sales & selling space 1997-2012 72
Table 9: Sources of sales growth for physical stores 1997-2012 73
Table 10: Store numbers 1997-2012 74
Table 11: Space by location 1997-2012 76
Table 12: Sales densities by location at current prices 1997-2012 80
Table 13: Average store size by location 1997-2012 81
Table 14: Average sales per store by location at current prices 1997-2012 83
Table 15: Sector analysis features 1997-2012 86
Table 16: Books, news & stationery key numbers 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012 87
Table 17: Books, news & stationery key growth rates 1997-02, 2002-07 and 2007-12 87
Table 18: Books, news & stationery specialists sales 1997-2012 94
Table 19: Sources of growth for books, news & stationery specialists 1997-2012 95
Table 20: Total books, news & stationery expenditure 1997-2012 96
Table 21: Books, news & stationery expenditure analysis 2007-2012 97
Table 22: Catalogue retailers summary 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012 99
Table 23: Catalogue retailers sales 1997-2012 104
Table 24: Clothing & footwear expenditure summary 2002, 2007 & 2012 105
Table 25: Clothing summary 2002, 2007 & 2012 107
Table 26: Footwear summary 2002, 2007 & 2012 108
Table 27: Clothing specialists sales 1997-2012 113
Table 28: Sources of growth for clothing specialists 1997-2012 114
Table 29: Footwear specialists sales 1997-2012 115
Table 30: Sources of growth for footwear specialists 1997-2012 116
Table 31: Total clothing & footwear expenditure 1997-2012 117
Table 32: Clothing & footwear expenditure analysis 2007-2012 118
Table 33: DIY & gardening expenditure summary 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012 124
Table 34: DIY specialists summary 2002, 2007 and 2012 126
Table 35: DIY specialists sales 1997-2012 132
Table 36: Sources of growth for UK DIY specialists 1997-2012 134
Table 37: Total DIY & gardening expenditure 1997-2012 136
Table 38: DIY expenditure analysis 2007-2012 137
Table 39: Gardening expenditure analysis 2007-2012 140
Table 40: Electricals expenditure summary 2002, 2007 & 2012 143
Table 41: Electricals specialists summary 2002, 2007 and 2012 144
Table 42: Electricals specialists sales 1997-2012 149
Table 43: Sources of growth for UK electricals specialists 1997-2012 151
Table 44: Total electricals expenditure 1997-2012 153
Table 45: Brown goods expenditure analysis 2007-2012 154
Table 46: White goods expenditure analysis 2007-2012 155
Table 47: Grey goods expenditure analysis 2007-2012 156
Table 48: Food & grocery key numbers 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012 157
Table 49: All food & grocery specialists sales 1997-2012 162
Table 50: Sources of growth for UK food & grocery retailers 1997-2012 164
Table 51: Total food & grocery consumer expenditure 1997-2012 166
Table 52: Food expenditure analysis 2007-2012 167
Table 53: Alcoholic drinks & soft drinks expenditure analysis 2007-2012 169
Table 54: Tobacco & non-durable household goods expenditure analysis 2007-2012 171
Table 55: Furniture & floorcoverings expenditure summary 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012e 172
Table 56: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists summaries 2002, 2007 and 2012e 173
Table 57: Furniture & floorcoverings specialists sales 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 181
Table 58: Sources of growth for UK furniture & floorcoverings specialists 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 183
Table 59: Total furniture & floorcoverings expenditure 1997-2012e 185
Table 60: Furniture expenditure analysis 2007-2012 186
Table 61: Floorcoverings expenditure analysis 2007-2012 188
Table 62: Health & beauty summary data - expenditure 2002, 2007 & 2012 189
Table 63: Health & beauty summary data - specialists sales, space and stores 2002, 2007 & 2012 190
Table 64: All sales through health & beauty specialists 1997-2012 196
Table 65: Sources of growth for health & beauty specialists 1997-2012 197
Table 66: Total health & beauty expenditure 1997-2012 198
Table 67: Health & beauty category analysis 2007-2012 199
Table 68: Homewares expenditure summary 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012e 206
Table 69: Total homewares expenditure 1997-2012e 212
Table 70: Homewares expenditure analysis 2007-2012 213
Table 71: Music & video key numbers 1997, 2002, 2007 and 2012 216
Table 72: Music & video key growth rates 1997-02, 2002-07 and 2007-12 216
Table 73: Music & video specialists sales 1997-2012 223
Table 74: Sources of growth for music & video specialists 1997-2012 225
Table 75: Total music & video expenditure 1997-2012 226
Table 76: Music & video expenditure analysis 2007-2012 227
Table 77: Books, news & stationery market definition 2008 229
Table 78: Catalogue retailers market definition 2008 230
Table 79: Clothing & footwear market definition 2008 231
Table 80: DIY & gardening market definition 2008 232
Table 81: Electricals market definition 2008 233
Table 82: Food & grocery market definition 2008 234
Table 83: Furniture & floorcoverings market definition 2008 235
Table 84: Health & beauty market definition 2008 236
Table 85: Homewares market definition 2008 237
Table 86: Music & video market definition 2008 238
List of Figures
Figure 1: Consumer expenditure growth 2002-2007 and 2007-2012 11
Figure 2: Specialists sales growth 2002-2007 and 2007-2012 14
Figure 3: Specialists space growth 2002-2007 and 2007-2012 17
Figure 4: Sales density growth (current prices) 2002-2007 and 2007-2012 19
Figure 5: Real gross domestic product (GDP) at constant (2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 27
Figure 6: Inflation vs average earnings growth 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 29
Figure 7: Tax & Prices vs Average Earnings 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 30
Figure 8: Real household disposable income at constant (2003) prices 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 33
Figure 9: UK employment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 35
Figure 10: UK unemployment 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 35
Figure 11: Inflation rates Y-o-Y 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 38
Figure 12: Sterling, dollar and euro exchange rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 41
Figure 13: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast by quarter for 2008 43
Figure 14: UK average base rates 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 44
Figure 15: Savings ratio 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 46
Figure 16: Growth in consumer debt 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 48
Figure 17: FTSE 100 Index 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 51
Figure 18: UK house price inflation 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 53
Figure 19: Housing Equity Withdrawal (England & Wales) 1996-2007 and forecast to 2012 55
Figure 20: Housing transactions (England & Wales) 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 58
Figure 21: Retail spending value, volume and inflation/deflation trends 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 64
Figure 22: Retail spending as percentage of total consumer spending 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 65
Figure 23: Consumer, retail and non-retail spending trends % 1997-2007 and forecast to 2012 66
Figure 24: Retail sales by location 2007 and 2012 68
Figure 25: Share of turnover by location 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012 71
Figure 26: % share of store numbers by location 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012 75
Figure 27: % share of space by location 1997, 2002, 2007 & 2012 77
Figure 28: Online retail spending 1997-2012 84
Figure 29: Books, news & stationery channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012 93
Figure 30: Catalogue retailers channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012 101
Figure 31: Forecast changes in shares of major channels in the catalogue retailing market 2012 on 2007 102
Figure 32: Clothing & footwear channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012 109
Figure 33: Changes in shares of clothing & footwear market 2012 on 2007 110
Figure 34: DIY & gardening channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012 128
Figure 35: Changes in shares of major channels in the DIY & gardening market 2012 on 2007 129
Figure 36: Electricals channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012 146
Figure 37: Forecast changes in shares of major channels in the electricals market 2012 on 2007 147
Figure 38: Food & grocery category growth prospects 2006, 2007 & 2012 159
Figure 39: Food & grocery channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012 160
Figure 40: Channels of distribution - furniture 2006, 2007 & 2012e 175
Figure 41: Changes in shares of major channels in the furniture market 2012e on 2007 176
Figure 42: Channels of distribution - floorcoverings 2006, 2007 & 2012 178
Figure 43: Changes in shares of major channels in the floorcoverings market 2012e on 2007 179
Figure 44: Health & beauty channels of distribution 2006, 2007 and 2012e 192
Figure 45: Changes in shares of health & beauty market 2012e on 2007 193
Figure 46: Homewares channels of distribution 2006, 2007 and 2012 207
Figure 47: Forecast changes in shares of homewares market major channels 2012e on 2007 208
Figure 48: Music & video channels of distribution 2006, 2007 & 2012 220
Figure 49: Changes in shares of major channels in the music & video market 2012 on 2007 221
Figure 50: Verdict forecasting methodology 2008 242