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Executive Summary The UK fast-food/takeaway and home-delivery market (excluding coffee shops) reached a value of £9.33bn in 2007, an increase of 4.2% compared with 2006. If coffee shops are included, the value of the market reached £11.63bn in 2007 — a growth of 4.4% since 2006.

This report analyses the following sectors of the market: sandwiches, burgers, pizza, fish and chips, chicken, other fast-food/takeaway outlets, and coffee shops. Coffee shops have traditionally not been included as a main market sector in Key Note's Fast Food & Home Delivery Outlets reports, as they are covered in the Key Note Market Assessment Coffee & Sandwich Shops (published in October 2007). However, given the growth of the sector in recent years, coffee shops have been covered in this report.

The UK fast-food/takeaway and home-delivery market is a significant sector of the UK catering market, and one that continues to expand steadily, particularly with regard to the number of new store openings. Companies such as Domino's Pizza, Greggs, Pizza Hut and Subway all increased their outlet numbers in 2007. Within the coffee-shops sector, Costa added to its outlet total in 2007 and aims to more than double its number of stores worldwide over the next 5 years (to 2013). Other leading fast-food chains, including McDonald's, are in the process of remodelling their UK stores, and Burger King has announced plans for a new restaurant concept.

Fast-food retailers, like many other businesses, are facing substantial increases in the cost of their operations, with prices for energy rising rapidly and those for a wide range of food items (such as poultry, beef, fish, cereals, flour and vegetable oils) all increasing at levels well above inflation. Although fast-food companies are absorbing some of these cost increases through greater efficiency, there has inevitably been a rise in prices at retail level. However, the fast-food market remains highly competitive, and the extent to which these price increases can be passed on to customers may be limited.

Key Note forecasts that the value of the UK fast-food/takeaway and home-delivery market will show steady, albeit low, levels of growth between 2008 and 2012. Rising inflation and slow economic growth are expected to have some impact on demand for fast food in the early years of the forecast period, although the relatively low prices of fast food (in comparison with casual dining outlets) may give fast-food retailers a degree of competitive advantage. In the long term, the ambitious expansion plans of many leading fast-food companies should provide the impetus for further growth in the market overall.  
 

Executive Summary

1. Market Definition

REPORT COVERAGE

MARKET SECTORS

Sandwiches

Burgers

Pizza

Fish and Chips

Chicken

Other Fast-Food/Takeaway Outlets

Coffee Shops

MARKET TRENDS

The Economy

Nutritional Information

Outlet Growth

Refurbishment of Fast-Food Outlets

Advertising Expenditure

ECONONIC TRENDS

Inflation

Table 1: UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2003-2007

Population

Table 2: UK Resident Population Estimates by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2003-2007

Gross Domestic Product

Table 3: UK Gross Domestic Product at Current and Annual Chain-Linked Prices (£m), 2003-2007

Unemployment

Table 4: Actual Number of Unemployed Persons (million), 2003-2007

Household Disposable Income

Table 5: Household Disposable Income Per Capita (£), 2003-2007

MARKET POSITION

Table 6: The UK Fast-Food Market in Relation to Household Expenditure on Restaurants, Cafés, etc. by Value at Current Prices, (£m and %), 2003-2007

Overseas

2. Market Size

THE TOTAL MARKET

Table 7: The Total UK Fast-Food/Takeaway and Home-Delivery Market by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2003-2007

Figure 1: The Total UK Fast-Food/Takeaway and Home-Delivery Market by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2003-2007

BY MARKET SECTOR

Figure 2: The Total UK Fast-Food/Takeaway and Home-Delivery Market by Sector by Value (%), 2007

Sandwiches

Table 8: The UK Sandwiches Sector† by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and %), 2003-2007

Burgers

Table 9: The UK Burger Sector by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and %), 2003-2007

Pizza

Table 10: The UK Pizza Sector by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and %), 2003-2007

Fish and Chips

Table 11: The UK Fish-and-Chips Sector by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and %), 2003-2007

Chicken

Table 12: The UK Chicken Sector by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and %), 2003-2007

Other Fast-Food/Takeaway Outlets

Table 13: The UK Other Fast-Food/Takeaway and Home-Delivery Outlets Sector† by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and %), 2003-2007

Coffee Shops

Table 14: The UK Coffee-Shops Sector by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp and %), 2003-2007

3. Industry Background

RECENT HISTORY

NUMBER OF COMPANIES

Table 15: Number of UK VAT-Based Enterprises Engaged as Restaurants, Cafés and Takeaways, 2003-2007

Table 16: Number of UK VAT-Based Enterprises Engaged as Restaurants, Cafés and Takeaways by Turnover Sizeband (£000), 2003-2007

EMPLOYMENT

Table 17: Number of Employees in the Restaurant Industry in Great Britain (000), 2003-2007

Table 18: Number of UK VAT-Based Local Units Engaged as Restaurants, Cafés and Takeaways by Employment Sizeband (number and %), 2007

REGIONAL VARIATIONS IN THE MARKETPLACE

Table 19: Selected UK Fast-Food and Takeaway Chains by Sector and Estimated Number of Outlets, 2007

Table 20: Adults Who Have Eaten Takeaway Food and Adults Who Have Eaten Fast Food in the Outlet in the Past 12 Months by Region (%), 2007

DISTRIBUTION

HOW ROBUST IS THE MARKET?

Table 21: Number of UK VAT-Based Enterprises Engaged as Restaurants, Cafés and Takeaways by Age of Business (number and %), 2007

LEGISLATION

Food Safety Act

Labour-Related Legislation

Immigration, Asylum and Nationality Act 2006

Environmental Legislation

KEY TRADE ASSOCIATIONS

British Hospitality Association

HOTREC

Pizza, Pasta & Italian Food Association

4. Competitor Analysis

THE MARKETPLACE

MARKET LEADERS

Baskin-Robbins

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

BurgerKing Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Caffè Nero Group Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Domino's Pizza UK & IRL PLC

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Gondola Group Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Greggs PLC

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Kentucky Fried Chicken (Great Britain) Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

McDonald's Restaurants Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

O'Briens Irish Sandwich Bars (UK) Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Perfect Pizza Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Pizza Hut (UK) Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Pret A Manger (Europe) Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Select Service Partner Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Starbucks Coffee Company (UK) Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Subway Sandwiches UK Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Whitbread Group PLC

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Wimpy GB Ltd

Company Structure

Current and Future Developments

Financial Results

Other Companies

Coffee Republic PLC

EAT Ltd

Lyndale Foods Ltd

Ponti's Group Ltd

Spudulike Group Ltd

OUTSIDE SUPPLIERS

MARKETING ACTIVITY

Table 22: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Fast-Food Chains (£000), Years Ending March 2004-2008

5. Brand Strategy

INTRODUCTION

Company Brands

Burger King

Domino's Pizza

Kentucky Fried Chicken

McDonald's

Pizza Hut

Subway

MAIN MEDIA ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE

Table 23: Main Media Advertising Expenditure by Leading Fast-Food Brands (£000), Years Ending March 2004-2008

6. Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats

STRENGTHS

WEAKNESSES

OPPORTUNITIES

THREATS

7. Buying Behaviour

VISITORS TO FAST-FOOD RESTAURANTS

Table 24: Adults Who Have Visited a Fast-Food Outlet For a Sit-Down Meal or Takeaway in the Last 6 Months (% of adults), 2008

HEALTH FACTORS

Table 25: Changes Made to Fast-Food Eating Habits Due to Health Factors (% of adults), 2008

Table 26: Adults Who Have Made No Changes to Their Fast-Food Eating Habits Due to Health Factors (% of adults), 2008

Adults Who Had Made Changes to Their Eating Habits

Table 27: Strategies Employed by Adults Who Have Made Changes to Their Fast-Food Eating Habits Due to Health Factors (% of adults), 2008

Rising Food Prices

Table 28: The Impact of Rising Food Prices on the Frequency of Visits to Fast-Food Outlets for a Sit-Down Meal or Takeaway in the Past 6 Months (% of adults), 2008

8. Current Issues

POLITICS

Government Sets Out 21st Century Challenges for Food in the UK

National Consumer Council Criticises Leading Takeaway Chains

Liverpool Councillors Consider Banning Toy Promotions

INTERNATIONAL DEvelopments

Calorie Counts to be Posted Alongside Prices in New York

MARKET DEVELOPMENTS

Food Prices Keep on Rising

Companies' Responses to Rising Food Prices

HEALTH

`Take Life On'

EDUCATION

CORPORATE ACTIVITY

LEGISLATION

Phasing Out of Fast-Food Advertisements During Children's Programmes

ENVIRONMENT

TECHNOLOGY

Subway Introduces QualityNet

9. The Global Market

INTRODUCTION

McDonald's Corporation

Table 29: McDonald's Corporation — Number of Restaurants by Type, as at 31st December 2005-2007

Table 30: McDonald's Corporation — Number of Restaurants by Region, as at 31st December 2005-2007

Table 31: McDonald's Corporation — Revenues by Type ($m), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Table 32: McDonald's Corporation — Revenues by Region ($m), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

YUM! Brands Inc

Table 33: Yum! Brands Inc — Number of System Restaurants by Region, as at 31st December 2005-2007

Table 34: Yum! Brands Inc — Number of System Restaurants by Brand by Region, as at 31st December 2007

Table 35: Yum! Brands Inc — Revenues by Region ($m), Years Ending 31st December 2005-2007

Burger King Holdings Inc

Table 36: Burger King Holdings Inc — Number of Restaurants by Type, as at 30th June 2005-2007

Table 37: Burger King Holdings Inc — Revenues by Source ($m), Years Ending 30th June 2005-2007

Table 38: Burger King Holdings Inc — Revenues by Region ($m), Years Ending June 2005-2007

Starbucks Corporation

Table 39: Starbucks Corporation — Number of Stores by Type, as at 2nd October 2005, 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007

Table 40: Starbucks Corporation — Number of Company-Operated Stores by Location, as at 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007

Table 41: Starbucks Corporation — Net Revenues by Type ($m), Years Ending 2nd October 2005, 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007

Table 42: Starbucks Corporation — Net Revenues by Region ($m), Years Ending 1st October 2006 and 30th September 2007

10. Forecasts

introduction

Population

Table 43: Forecast UK Resident Population by Sex (000), Mid-Years 2008-2012

Gross Domestic Product

Table 44: The Forecast UK Growth in Gross Domestic Product in Real Terms (%), 2008-2012

Inflation

Table 45: Forecast UK Rate of Inflation (%), 2008-2012

Unemployment

Table 46: Forecast Actual Number of Unemployed Persons in the UK (million), 2008-2012

FORECASts 2008 to 2012

Table 47: The Forecast Total UK Fast-Food/Takeaway and Home-Delivery Market by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2008-2012

By Market Sector

Table 48: The Forecast UK Fast-Food/Takeaway and Home-Delivery Market by Sector by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2008-2012

Figure 3: The Forecast UK Fast-Food/Takeaway and Home-Delivery Market by Sector by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2008-2012

Market Growth

Figure 4: The Forecast Total UK Fast-Food/Takeaway and Home-Delivery Market by Value at Current Prices (£m at rsp), 2008-2012

FUTURE TRENDS

Fast-Food Outlets Aim to Gain From `Credit Crunch'

Chains Plan More Store Openings

Corporate Activity

11. Company Profiles

Burgerking Ltd

Domino's Pizza Uk & Irl Plc

Greggs Plc

Kentucky Fried Chicken (great Britain) Ltd

Mcdonald's Restaurants Ltd

Pizza Hut (uk) Ltd

Starbucks Coffee Company (uk) Ltd

12. Company Financials

13. Further Sources

Associations

General Sources

Government Publications

Other Sources

Bisnode Sources